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Held by 605 of 5,944 reporting institutions (97th percentile) — extremely crowded.
Data as of Q1 2026
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Solve the discounted cash flow backwards, then stress-test the assumptions.
To be worth $35.59 today, the market must believe free cash flow compounds -0.8%/yr for a decade (off $1.1B normalized FCF).
The market's -0.8% is more conservative than its 9-yr track record.
2-stage DCF · 0.31B shares · net debt $1.4B
mean 6.4% · volatility σ 101% · implied rate exceeded in 2/5 yrs
Central path = implied -0.8%/yr growth; shaded band = ±1σ (101%) of this company's historical FCF volatility, widening with time. The wider the band, the less certain the growth.
Reverse DCF: rather than guessing a fair value, we solve for the growth the current price implies, then you stress-test the assumptions. Enterprise value of the FCF stream, less net debt, ÷ shares. Educational — not a recommendation.
EOD close · as of 2026-09-17
How a revenue dollar becomes profit — FY2025
Each value shows its share of revenue below it (common-size).
| Line Item | FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2023 | FY2022 | FY2021 | FY2020 | FY2019 | FY2018 | FY2017 | FY2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $5.28B 100.0% | $4.33B 100.0% | $4.68B 100.0% | $7.14B 100.0% | $4.62B 100.0% | $3.49B 100.0% | $4.41B 100.0% | $4.14B 100.0% | $3.66B 100.0% | $1.74B 100.0% |
| Selling, General & Admin | $232.5M 4.4% | $229.3M 5.3% | $224.5M 4.8% | $172.9M 2.4% | $145.0M 3.1% | $134.5M 3.9% | $178.7M 4.1% | $240.3M 5.8% | $251.2M 6.9% | $239.3M 13.7% |
| Total Operating Expenses | $4.39B 83.3% | $4.33B 100.0% | $4.29B 91.5% | $4.60B 64.4% | $4.60B 99.5% | $4.45B 127.3% | $5.40B 122.4% | $4.07B 98.3% | $2.92B 79.8% | $2.72B 155.9% |
| Operating Income | $883.6M 16.7% | $460K 0.0% | $396.2M 8.5% | $2.54B 35.6% | $23.9M 0.5% | -$953.4M -27.3% | -$987.0M -22.4% | $71.9M 1.7% | $740.1M 20.2% | -$975.8M -55.9% |
| Interest Expense | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | $286.7M 6.9% | $268.7M 7.4% | $253.6M 14.5% |
| Other Income (Expense), net | $6.8M 0.1% | -$24.9M -0.6% | -$35.3M -0.8% | -$99.2M -1.4% | -$252.0M -5.5% | -$704.4M -20.2% | $619.8M 14.1% | -$246.5M -6.0% | -$250.0M -6.8% | -$270.0M -15.5% |
| Pretax Income | $890.4M 16.9% | -$24.5M -0.6% | $361.0M 7.7% | $2.44B 34.2% | -$228.2M -4.9% | -$1.66B -47.5% | -$367.2M -8.3% | -$174.6M -4.2% | $490.1M 13.4% | -$1.25B -71.4% |
| Income Tax Expense | $215.9M 4.1% | -$118.2M -2.7% | $63.6M 1.4% | $441.3M 6.2% | -$74.1M -1.6% | -$397.5M -11.4% | -$74.1M -1.7% | -$128.9M -3.1% | -$295.1M -8.1% | -$496.4M -28.5% |
| Net Income | $675.0M 12.8% | $94.0M 2.2% | $297.0M 6.3% | $2.00B 28.0% | -$162.0M -3.5% | -$1.26B -36.1% | -$293.1M -6.6% | -$45.7M -1.1% | $785.1M 21.5% | -$749.4M -43.0% |
| Per Share | ||||||||||
| EPS (Basic) | $2.05 | $0.18 | $0.66 | $6.09 | $-0.61 | $-4.65 | $-1.11 | $-1.26 | $1.95 | $-2.88 |
| EPS (Diluted) | $2.03 | $0.18 | $0.64 | $5.69 | $-0.61 | $-4.65 | $-1.11 | $-1.26 | $1.94 | $-2.88 |
| Weighted Avg Shares (Basic) | 309.7M | 309.5M | 299.8M | 307.2M | 308.1M | 272.4M | 306.4M | 316.0M | 315.4M | 294.9M |
| Weighted Avg Shares (Diluted) | 312.4M | 313.4M | 311.6M | 329.2M | 308.1M | 272.4M | 306.4M | 316.0M | 316.3M | 294.9M |
Source: SEC EDGAR XBRL filings (annual, fiscal year). Quarterly flow items are derived from cumulative filings; balance-sheet figures are as-of each period end. Ratios and margins are computed, not reported.
Is the value real, and is the business safe? Academic scores + earnings quality + solvency, from SEC filings.
8/8 of the 9 checks — 1 couldn't be scored (see above), so the score is out of the 8 with data.
Safe > 2.99 · grey 1.81–2.99 · distress < 1.81
Needs granular two-year detail (receivables, PP&E, D&A, SG&A) — not fully reported.
Earnings are backed by cash (FCF ≥ net income) — high quality. Lower/negative accruals = higher quality (Sloan).
Coverage data unavailable; leverage falling year-over-year.
F-Score (0–9 fundamental momentum), Altman Z (distress risk), and Beneish M (earnings-manipulation screen) are academic models computed from the SEC filings. Screens and context — educational, not recommendations.
What the company returns to shareholders — and whether it's covered by cash.
No dividend to cover. Last year: $0 dividends + $136M buybacks = $136M returned on $1.6B FCF.
Yields use the latest fiscal-year dividends/buybacks over current market cap. Dividends and buybacks from the SEC cash-flow statement; payout coverage vs net income and free cash flow. Educational — not a recommendation.
How management deployed cash over 10 years — and what it earned on reinvestment.
A reinvestment story — most cash went back into growth rather than to shareholders.
Reinvestment has been productive — operating income grew well per dollar put in. Current ROIC on all capital: 8%. Rough measure (includes maintenance capex).
Cash uses aggregated from the SEC cash-flow statement over 10 fiscal years. "Return on reinvestment" is a rough proxy — operating-income change ÷ cumulative CapEx + M&A — and includes maintenance capex. Educational — not a recommendation.
How much the company owes, how it's trended, and how comfortably it's serviced.
Green ≤ 1.5× · amber ≤ 3× · red > 3× (leverage relative to cash earnings).
Thin coverage — earnings barely cover interest. Effective rate ~5.3% on $5.5B of debt. Interest last disclosed in FY2018 (no longer broken out).
Cash vs short-term debt unavailable.
Mostly long-term debt (balance-sheet current vs non-current split). A year-by-year maturity schedule wasn't disclosed for this issuer.
Debt, cash, interest and equity from the SEC balance sheet & income statement. Effective rate = interest ÷ average debt. Educational — not a recommendation.
Total shares institutions bought (green) vs sold (red) each quarter across all holders.
Inferred from quarter-over-quarter change in each fund's 13F position (new stakes count as buys, exits as sells). Not tick-level trades.
Top 40 institutional holders — bubble size is position value, color is the move since last quarter. Hover any holder for detail.
Drag any bubble to rearrange · size = dollar value of the position
Total return (dividends reinvested) vs the market, from quarter-end prices.
Above 0 = ahead of the S&P 500 since the window start; below 0 = behind. Rising means it's pulling ahead.
How far the stock fell below its prior peak. Deeper, longer drawdowns = a rougher ride to the same return.
Quarter-end, dividend-adjusted (total return). Beta & volatility from quarterly returns (annualized). Benchmark is the S&P 500 (SPY total return). Annual returns compound the quarters ending in each calendar year; the first and last years in a window may be partial. Past performance doesn't predict future results.
Ranked against 238 sector peers with collected financials. Valuation from latest close × latest fiscal-year fundamentals; 13F conviction as of 2026-03-31.
Percentile is “goodness” within the peer set (100 = best). For valuation and leverage that means cheaper / less-levered ranks higher.
| Company | Mkt cap ▼ | P/E | EV/EBITDA | P/S | Rev gr | Gross | Net | ROE | ROIC | Net D/EBITDA | 13F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XOM | $682.3B | 24.4× | — | 2.0× | -5.0% | — | 8.7% | 11.1% | 10.7% | — | 4,568 |
| SHEL | $545.2B | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1,521 |
| CVX | $391.2B | 31.9× | — | 2.1× | -6.8% | 42.8% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.6% | — | 4,121 |
| TTE | $202.1B | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 951 |
| COP | $166.8B | 21.0× | — | 2.8× | 7.7% | 62.1% | 13.6% | 12.4% | 12.2% | — | 2,450 |
| PBR | $155.8B | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 524 |
| MPC | $128.7B | 31.9× | 11.0× | 1.0× | -4.4% | 10.0% | 3.0% | 23.4% | 20.6% | 0.2× | 1,802 |
| VLO | $127.5B | 54.5× | 24.1× | 1.0× | -5.5% | 4.4% | 1.9% | 9.9% | 7.1% | 1.7× | 1,781 |
| BP | $117.0B | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1,220 |
| PSX | $111.3B | 25.4× | — | 0.8× | -7.5% | 12.3% | 3.3% | 15.1% | 14.6% | — | 2,041 |
| EQNR | $110.8B | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 398 |
| WMB | $87.7B | 33.6× | 17.8× | 7.3× | 13.8% | — | 21.9% | 20.4% | 6.3% | 4.4× | 1,736 |
| EPD | $84.1B | — | 12.6× | 1.6× | -6.4% | 26.7% | 11.0% | — | — | 3.7× | 1,573 |
| EOG | $79.0B | 15.9× | 7.7× | 3.5× | -4.5% | — | 22.0% | 16.7% | 13.2% | 0.7× | 1,525 |
| SLB | $77.9B | 22.2× | — | 2.2× | -1.6% | — | 9.4% | 12.9% | 9.4% | — | 1,624 |
| ET | $72.5B | — | 9.8× | 0.8× | 3.5% | 25.8% | 5.2% | 9.0% | 3.8% | 4.8× | 1,244 |
| KMI | $69.7B | 22.9× | 14.2× | 4.1× | 12.2% | — | 18.0% | 9.8% | 4.8% | 4.5× | 1,745 |
| TRGP | $61.2B | 33.6× | 16.2× | 3.6× | 3.9% | 38.3% | 11.3% | 62.7% | 9.4% | 3.6× | 979 |
| TS | $60.6B | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 248 |
| MPLX | $59.4B | — | — | 4.6× | 8.9% | — | 38.1% | — | — | — | 622 |
| LNG | $59.3B | 11.2× | 7.8× | 3.0× | 27.2% | — | 26.7% | 67.3% | 17.3% | 2.2× | 1,303 |
| OKE | $58.7B | 17.2× | 12.4× | 1.8× | 55.0% | 30.5% | 10.1% | 15.1% | 6.3% | 4.4× | 1,622 |
| OXY | $58.5B | 36.8× | — | 2.7× | -1.9% | — | 11.0% | 6.6% | 4.2% | — | 1,250 |
| BKR | $56.2B | — | — | 2.0× | -0.3% | — | 9.3% | 13.7% | 13.3% | — | 1,095 |
| FANG | $56.0B | 34.4× | 11.2× | 3.7× | 35.8% | — | 11.1% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 2.3× | 1,141 |
| AR | $11.0B | 17.5× | 7.6× | 2.1× | 22.0% | — | 12.8% | 8.9% | 7.5% | 0.9× | 605 |
Peers = companies sharing AR's sector (Energy) with collected SEC financials. Multiples use the most recent end-of-day close and latest fiscal-year fundamentals (trailing, not forward). Missing cells mean the peer never reported that line item, has no collected price, or has a non-positive denominator. Not investment advice.
EOD close · as of 2026-09-17
Where each multiple sits in its own 13-yr range · 67th pct blended
Dot = today · shaded = middle 50% · line = median. Lower percentile = cheaper vs its own 13-yr history.
Is the profit real, and how strong is the balance sheet?
FY2025 · every deduction from revenue to net income
DuPont — the three levers
Watch the leverage lever — a chunk of ROE comes from the balance sheet.
What the company owes vs. what it holds
Year-by-year maturities aren't in SEC companyfacts (footnote-only), so this shows the debt/cash structure and net leverage instead.
Latest year: profit growth vs revenue growth
High operating leverage: profit moved 8740.0× as fast as sales — great in an upturn, painful in a downturn.
Each line as % of revenue — the trend in color
| % of revenue | FY2018 | FY2019 | FY2020 | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SG&A | 5.8 | 4.1 | 3.9 | 3.1 | 2.4 | 4.8 | 5.3 | 4.4 |
| Operating Income | 1.7 | -22.4 | -27.3 | 0.5 | 35.6 | 8.5 | 0.0 | 16.7 |
| Income Tax | -3.1 | -1.7 | -11.4 | -1.6 | 6.2 | 1.4 | -2.7 | 4.1 |
| Net Income | -1.1 | -6.6 | -36.1 | -3.5 | 28.0 | 6.3 | 2.2 | 12.8 |
Green = margin-favorable vs the row's own range · red = unfavorable.
The metrics that matter, over time
A 30-second read on AR: price, valuation, headline fundamentals, and an auto-generated scorecard from SEC filings. Flags are rule-based signals, not recommendations.