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Institutional accumulation: ownership increased +1.82% quarter-over-quarter.
Data as of Q1 2026
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Solve the discounted cash flow backwards, then stress-test the assumptions.
To be worth $7.64 today, the market must believe free cash flow compounds 33.5%/yr for a decade (off $18M normalized FCF).
The market's 33.5% is more optimistic than its 9-yr track record.
2-stage DCF · 0.21B shares · net debt $764M
mean -116.2% · volatility σ 156% · implied rate exceeded in 0/5 yrs
Central path = implied 33.5%/yr growth; shaded band = ±1σ (156%) of this company's historical FCF volatility, widening with time. The wider the band, the less certain the growth.
Reverse DCF: rather than guessing a fair value, we solve for the growth the current price implies, then you stress-test the assumptions. Enterprise value of the FCF stream, less net debt, ÷ shares. Educational — not a recommendation.
Total shares institutions bought (green) vs sold (red) each quarter across all holders.
Inferred from quarter-over-quarter change in each fund's 13F position (new stakes count as buys, exits as sells). Not tick-level trades.
EOD close · as of 2026-09-17
How a revenue dollar becomes profit — FY2025
Each value shows its share of revenue below it (common-size).
| Line Item | FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2023 | FY2022 | FY2021 | FY2020 | FY2019 | FY2018 | FY2017 | FY2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $4.68B 100.0% | $4.47B 100.0% | $4.33B 100.0% | $3.62B 100.0% | $2.66B 100.0% | $1.98B 100.0% | $2.96B 100.0% | $3.08B 100.0% | $3.32B 100.0% | $2.93B 100.0% |
| Cost of Revenue | $89.5M 1.9% | $83.7M 1.9% | $83.4M 1.9% | $68.0M 1.9% | $50.6M 1.9% | $43.5M 2.2% | $61.3M 2.1% | $67.9M 2.2% | — | — |
| Selling, General & Admin | $312.8M 6.7% | $279.9M 6.3% | $285.0M 6.6% | $239.3M 6.6% | $210.9M 7.9% | $171.4M 8.6% | $212.5M 7.2% | $229.3M 7.4% | $244.7M 7.4% | $221.1M 7.5% |
| Total Operating Expenses | $4.31B 92.2% | $4.15B 92.7% | $4.02B 92.8% | $3.35B 92.7% | $2.52B 94.8% | $2.05B 103.4% | $2.80B 94.6% | $2.96B 96.0% | $3.05B 91.8% | $2.75B 93.9% |
| Operating Income | $364.4M 7.8% | $324.5M 7.3% | $314.0M 7.2% | $264.4M 7.3% | $139.5M 5.2% | -$66.8M -3.4% | $159.9M 5.4% | $123.5M 4.0% | $272.9M 8.2% | $178.6M 6.1% |
| Interest Expense | $13.7M 0.3% | $47.2M 1.1% | $32.3M 0.7% | $43.8M 1.2% | $49.5M 1.9% | $33.4M 1.7% | $52.1M 1.8% | $52.9M 1.7% | $68.4M 2.1% | $66.9M 2.3% |
| Other Income (Expense), net | -$1.5M -0.0% | -$3.9M -0.1% | -$1.2M -0.0% | -$287K -0.0% | $2.2M 0.1% | $2.3M 0.1% | -$2.1M -0.1% | $270K 0.0% | -$435K -0.0% | -$2.4M -0.1% |
| Pretax Income | $341.3M 7.3% | $259.3M 5.8% | $278.1M 6.4% | $226.4M 6.3% | $77.8M 2.9% | -$131.9M -6.6% | $119.0M 4.0% | $85.2M 2.8% | $182.8M 5.5% | $138.6M 4.7% |
| Income Tax Expense | $128.7M 2.8% | $109.9M 2.5% | $95.7M 2.2% | $85.5M 2.4% | $31.9M 1.2% | $17.5M 0.9% | $38.8M 1.3% | $48.1M 1.6% | $53.3M 1.6% | $59.6M 2.0% |
| Net Income | $212.1M 4.5% | $148.8M 3.3% | $181.3M 4.2% | $140.3M 3.9% | $45.5M 1.7% | -$149.5M -7.5% | $79.9M 2.7% | $36.8M 1.2% | $129.2M 3.9% | $78.8M 2.7% |
| Per Share | ||||||||||
| EPS (Basic) | $1.01 | $0.71 | $0.86 | $0.67 | $0.22 | $-0.72 | $0.39 | $0.18 | $0.61 | $0.37 |
| EPS (Diluted) | $1.01 | $0.71 | $0.86 | $0.67 | $0.22 | $-0.72 | $0.38 | $0.18 | $0.61 | $0.37 |
| Weighted Avg Shares (Basic) | 210.7M | 210.7M | 210.6M | 210.6M | 210.4M | 208.4M | 207.0M | 209.1M | 210.9M | 210.6M |
| Weighted Avg Shares (Diluted) | 210.7M | 210.7M | 210.6M | 210.6M | 210.5M | 208.7M | 207.6M | 210.1M | 212.0M | 211.0M |
Source: SEC EDGAR XBRL filings (annual, fiscal year). Quarterly flow items are derived from cumulative filings; balance-sheet figures are as-of each period end. Ratios and margins are computed, not reported.
Is the value real, and is the business safe? Academic scores + earnings quality + solvency, from SEC filings.
Safe > 2.99 · grey 1.81–2.99 · distress < 1.81
Needs granular two-year detail (receivables, PP&E, D&A, SG&A) — not fully reported.
Cash conversion lags reported earnings — watch accruals. Lower/negative accruals = higher quality (Sloan).
Comfortably covers interest; leverage rising year-over-year.
F-Score (0–9 fundamental momentum), Altman Z (distress risk), and Beneish M (earnings-manipulation screen) are academic models computed from the SEC filings. Screens and context — educational, not recommendations.
What the company returns to shareholders — and whether it's covered by cash.
The dividend exceeds free cash flow (337%) — funded from the balance sheet or debt, a red flag if it persists. Last year: $51M dividends + $0 buybacks = $51M returned on $15M FCF.
Yields use the latest fiscal-year dividends/buybacks over current market cap. Dividends and buybacks from the SEC cash-flow statement; payout coverage vs net income and free cash flow. Educational — not a recommendation.
How management deployed cash over 10 years — and what it earned on reinvestment.
A reinvestment story — most cash went back into growth rather than to shareholders.
Modest payoff on reinvested capital. Current ROIC on all capital: 11%. Rough measure (includes maintenance capex).
Cash uses aggregated from the SEC cash-flow statement over 10 fiscal years. "Return on reinvestment" is a rough proxy — operating-income change ÷ cumulative CapEx + M&A — and includes maintenance capex. Educational — not a recommendation.
How much the company owes, how it's trended, and how comfortably it's serviced.
Cash of $373M covers the $12M due within a year 31.7× over. Scheduled principal only (excludes interest & revolver draws). As of 2025-12-31 (20-F).
Green ≤ 1.5× · amber ≤ 3× · red > 3× (leverage relative to cash earnings).
Interest is easily covered by operating profit. Effective rate ~1.2% on $1.1B of debt.
Cash of $373M fully covers short-term debt of $0.
Mostly long-term debt (balance-sheet current vs non-current split). See the maturity ladder above for the year-by-year repayment schedule.
Debt, cash, interest and equity from the SEC balance sheet & income statement. Effective rate = interest ÷ average debt. Maturity ladder from the SEC long-term-debt repayment schedule. Educational — not a recommendation.
EOD close · as of 2026-09-17
No material risks flagged.
Where each multiple sits in its own 14-yr range · 18th pct blended
Dot = today · shaded = middle 50% · line = median. Lower percentile = cheaper vs its own 14-yr history.
Is the profit real, and how strong is the balance sheet?
FY2025 · every deduction from revenue to net income
DuPont — the three levers
Watch the leverage lever — a chunk of ROE comes from the balance sheet.
What the company owes vs. what it holds
Year-by-year maturities aren't in SEC companyfacts (footnote-only), so this shows the debt/cash structure and net leverage instead.
Latest year: profit growth vs revenue growth
High operating leverage: profit moved 2.6× as fast as sales — great in an upturn, painful in a downturn.
Each line as % of revenue — the trend in color
| % of revenue | FY2018 | FY2019 | FY2020 | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cost of Revenue | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 |
| SG&A | 7.4 | 7.2 | 8.6 | 7.9 | 6.6 | 6.6 | 6.3 | 6.7 |
| Operating Income | 4.0 | 5.4 | -3.4 | 5.2 | 7.3 | 7.2 | 7.3 | 7.8 |
| Income Tax | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 2.8 |
| Net Income | 1.2 | 2.7 | -7.5 | 1.7 | 3.9 | 4.2 | 3.3 | 4.5 |
Green = margin-favorable vs the row's own range · red = unfavorable.
The metrics that matter, over time
A 30-second read on ARCO: price, valuation, headline fundamentals, and an auto-generated scorecard from SEC filings. Flags are rule-based signals, not recommendations.
Top 40 institutional holders — bubble size is position value, color is the move since last quarter. Hover any holder for detail.
Drag any bubble to rearrange · size = dollar value of the position
Total return (dividends reinvested) vs the market, from quarter-end prices.
Above 0 = ahead of the S&P 500 since the window start; below 0 = behind. Rising means it's pulling ahead.
How far the stock fell below its prior peak. Deeper, longer drawdowns = a rougher ride to the same return.
Quarter-end, dividend-adjusted (total return). Beta & volatility from quarterly returns (annualized). Benchmark is the S&P 500 (SPY total return). Annual returns compound the quarters ending in each calendar year; the first and last years in a window may be partial. Past performance doesn't predict future results.
Ranked against 490 sector peers with collected financials. Valuation from latest close × latest fiscal-year fundamentals; 13F conviction as of 2026-03-31.
Percentile is “goodness” within the peer set (100 = best). For valuation and leverage that means cheaper / less-levered ranks higher.
| Company | Mkt cap ▼ | P/E | EV/EBITDA | P/S | Rev gr | Gross | Net | ROE | ROIC | Net D/EBITDA | 13F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMZN | $2.70T | — | — | — | — | — | — | 20.5% | 16.2% | — | 5,764 |
| TSLA | $1.37T | 339.1× | 145.5× | 14.5× | -2.9% | 18.0% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 0.9× | 4,029 |
| TM | $614.2B | 60.0× | 24.8× | 2.6× | 3.8% | 18.4% | 4.4% | 7.9% | 5.9% | 1.7× | 665 |
| PDD | $442.6B | 32.9× | 31.9× | 7.2× | 14.5% | 56.3% | 22.7% | 23.7% | 23.7% | — | 548 |
| HD | $301.3B | 21.3× | 14.3× | 1.8× | 3.2% | 33.3% | 8.6% | 110% | 22.8% | 2.0× | 3,970 |
| BABA | $201.7B | 135.7× | — | 1.4× | 8.1% | 39.8% | 10.1% | 9.8% | 9.8% | — | 1,298 |
| TJX | $140.1B | 26.0× | — | 2.3× | 7.1% | 31.0% | 9.1% | 53.9% | 42.1% | — | 2,608 |
| HTHT | $132.7B | 187.9× | 114.3× | — | — | — | — | 39.7% | 27.3% | 0.7× | 258 |
| SBUX | $109.9B | 59.3× | 26.8× | 3.0× | 2.8% | — | 5.0% | -22.9% | 23.3% | 3.4× | 2,252 |
| LOW | $108.9B | 16.4× | 12.0× | 1.3× | 3.1% | 33.5% | 7.7% | -67.1% | 22.3% | 3.2× | 2,591 |
| ABNB | $101.7B | — | 37.9× | 8.3× | 10.3% | 83.0% | 20.5% | 30.6% | 24.6% | 0.8× | 1,246 |
| MELI | $92.5B | 46.3× | — | 3.2× | 39.1% | 44.5% | 6.9% | 29.6% | 12.5% | — | 1,380 |
| MAR | $88.8B | 35.1× | 20.6× | 3.4× | 4.3% | — | 9.9% | -69.0% | -69.4% | 0.0× | 1,559 |
| LKNCY | $86.3B | 168.2× | 90.8× | 12.3× | 48.9% | — | 7.3% | 23.0% | 23.0% | — | 9 |
| GM | $78.3B | 26.5× | 3.9× | 0.4× | -1.3% | — | 1.5% | 4.4% | 4.4% | — | 1,447 |
| ROST | $74.0B | 34.7× | 22.0× | 3.3× | 7.7% | 27.7% | 9.4% | 34.7% | 27.8% | 0.5× | 1,276 |
| ORLY | $71.5B | 28.6× | 19.5× | 4.0× | 6.4% | 51.6% | 14.3% | -333% | 48.3% | 1.5× | 1,569 |
| HLT | $69.7B | 49.4× | 24.0× | 5.8× | 7.7% | — | 12.1% | -27.0% | -27.0% | — | 1,126 |
| RCL | $67.7B | 16.0× | — | 3.8× | 8.8% | 49.4% | 23.8% | 42.5% | 32.3% | — | 1,114 |
| SE | $62.0B | 40.2× | 24.6× | 2.7× | 36.4% | 44.7% | 6.9% | 12.6% | 12.6% | — | 718 |
| F | $54.2B | — | 4.5× | 0.3× | 1.2% | 6.8% | -4.4% | -22.7% | -22.7% | — | — |
| NKE | $53.9B | 17.3× | — | 1.2× | 0.2% | 42.9% | 6.7% | 20.9% | 13.6% | — | 1,848 |
| EBAY | $50.7B | 26.0× | 18.4× | 4.6× | 7.9% | 71.5% | 18.3% | 45.3% | 38.8% | 0.3× | 1,182 |
| AZO | $47.8B | 19.6× | 13.3× | 2.5× | 2.4% | 52.6% | 13.2% | -73.2% | 46.4% | 2.1× | 1,245 |
| CMG | $44.8B | 29.4× | 19.4× | 3.8× | 5.4% | — | 12.9% | 54.3% | 54.3% | 0.0× | 1,203 |
| ARCO | $1.6B | 7.6× | 4.5× | 0.3× | 4.7% | 98.1% | 4.5% | 27.5% | 11.1% | 2.1× | 157 |
Peers = companies sharing ARCO's sector (Consumer Cyclical) with collected SEC financials. Multiples use the most recent end-of-day close and latest fiscal-year fundamentals (trailing, not forward). Missing cells mean the peer never reported that line item, has no collected price, or has a non-positive denominator. Not investment advice.