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Held by 370 of 5,944 reporting institutions (95th percentile) — extremely crowded.
Data as of Q1 2026
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Solve the discounted cash flow backwards, then stress-test the assumptions.
To be worth $40.75 today, the market must believe free cash flow compounds 28.9%/yr for a decade (off $48M normalized FCF).
The market's 28.9% is more optimistic than its 9-yr track record.
2-stage DCF · 0.10B shares · net debt $414M
mean -640.1% · volatility σ 487% · implied rate exceeded in 0/4 yrs
Central path = implied 28.9%/yr growth; shaded band = ±1σ (487%) of this company's historical FCF volatility, widening with time. The wider the band, the less certain the growth.
Reverse DCF: rather than guessing a fair value, we solve for the growth the current price implies, then you stress-test the assumptions. Enterprise value of the FCF stream, less net debt, ÷ shares. Educational — not a recommendation.
Total shares institutions bought (green) vs sold (red) each quarter across all holders.
Inferred from quarter-over-quarter change in each fund's 13F position (new stakes count as buys, exits as sells). Not tick-level trades.
EOD close · as of 2026-09-17
How a revenue dollar becomes profit — FY2025
Each value shows its share of revenue below it (common-size).
| Line Item | FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2023 | FY2022 | FY2021 | FY2020 | FY2019 | FY2018 | FY2017 | FY2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2.53B 100.0% | $2.22B 100.0% | $2.19B 100.0% | $2.78B 100.0% | $2.21B 100.0% | $1.61B 100.0% | $1.84B 100.0% | $1.89B 100.0% | $1.59B 100.0% | $1.32B 100.0% |
| Cost of Revenue | $2.27B 89.9% | $2.05B 92.3% | $2.10B 96.0% | $2.73B 98.3% | $2.09B 94.4% | $1.64B 102.3% | $1.86B 101.3% | $1.92B 101.2% | $1.46B 91.7% | $1.33B 100.5% |
| Cost of Products | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | $1.46B 91.9% | $1.33B 100.8% |
| Gross Profit | $256.4M 10.1% | $172.0M 7.7% | $87.6M 4.0% | $46.7M 1.7% | $124.2M 5.6% | -$36.5M -2.3% | -$23.9M -1.3% | -$22.9M -1.2% | $131.3M 8.3% | -$6.1M -0.5% |
| Selling, General & Admin | $79.9M 3.2% | $56.8M 2.6% | $44.3M 2.0% | $37.5M 1.4% | $57.6M 2.6% | $43.5M 2.7% | $47.4M 2.6% | $40.2M 2.1% | $44.8M 2.8% | $38.9M 2.9% |
| Operating Income | $158.1M 6.3% | $108.4M 4.9% | $27.5M 1.3% | -$150.2M -5.4% | $66.0M 3.0% | -$80.5M -5.0% | -$72.1M -3.9% | -$59.0M -3.1% | $97.2M 6.1% | -$227.9M -17.3% |
| Interest Expense | — | — | — | $29.3M 1.1% | $28.8M 1.3% | $29.7M 1.9% | $23.0M 1.3% | $22.4M 1.2% | $22.2M 1.4% | $22.2M 1.7% |
| Interest & Investment Income | $9.2M 0.4% | $2.1M 0.1% | $2.0M 0.1% | $500K 0.0% | $800K 0.0% | $800K 0.0% | $800K 0.0% | $1.5M 0.1% | $1.4M 0.1% | $800K 0.1% |
| Other Income (Expense), net | -$14.5M -0.6% | -$5.5M -0.2% | -$3.3M -0.2% | $15.3M 0.6% | $3.1M 0.1% | $3.5M 0.2% | -$1.1M -0.1% | $3.0M 0.2% | -$4.5M -0.3% | -$5.1M -0.4% |
| Pretax Income | $2.7M 0.1% | $309.8M 14.0% | -$71.1M -3.3% | $33.4M 1.2% | -$197.6M -8.9% | -$126.3M -7.9% | -$85.5M -4.7% | -$70.6M -3.7% | $55.4M 3.5% | -$250.9M -19.0% |
| Income Tax Expense | -$13.1M -0.5% | $3.2M 0.1% | -$14.6M -0.7% | $47.4M 1.7% | -$30.6M -1.4% | -$3.1M -0.2% | -$8.4M -0.5% | -$200K -0.0% | $7.6M 0.5% | $2.8M 0.2% |
| Net Income | $40.0M 1.6% | $319.0M 14.4% | -$43.0M -2.0% | -$14.0M -0.5% | -$167.0M -7.5% | -$123.3M -7.7% | -$80.8M -4.4% | -$66.2M -3.5% | $48.6M 3.1% | -$252.4M -19.1% |
| Per Share | ||||||||||
| EPS (Basic) | $0.42 | $3.44 | $-0.47 | $-0.15 | $-1.85 | $-1.38 | $-0.91 | $-0.76 | $0.51 | $-2.90 |
| EPS (Diluted) | $0.42 | $3.27 | $-0.47 | $-0.15 | $-1.85 | $-1.38 | $-0.91 | $-0.76 | $0.51 | $-2.90 |
| Weighted Avg Shares (Basic) | 94.2M | 92.8M | 92.4M | 91.4M | 90.2M | 89.5M | 88.8M | — | 87.3M | — |
| Weighted Avg Shares (Diluted) | 95.3M | 98.4M | 92.4M | 91.4M | 90.2M | 89.5M | 88.8M | — | 88.0M | — |
Source: SEC EDGAR XBRL filings (annual, fiscal year). Quarterly flow items are derived from cumulative filings; balance-sheet figures are as-of each period end. Ratios and margins are computed, not reported.
Is the value real, and is the business safe? Academic scores + earnings quality + solvency, from SEC filings.
Insufficient balance-sheet detail (needs retained earnings, working capital, equity).
Eight indices comparing this year to last (receivables, margins, asset quality, growth, accruals, leverage). Above −1.78 suggests possible manipulation; below −2.22 is clean.
A screen, not proof — high growth alone can raise it.
Earnings are backed by cash (FCF ≥ net income) — high quality. Lower/negative accruals = higher quality (Sloan).
Coverage data unavailable; leverage falling year-over-year.
F-Score (0–9 fundamental momentum), Altman Z (distress risk), and Beneish M (earnings-manipulation screen) are academic models computed from the SEC filings. Screens and context — educational, not recommendations.
What the company returns to shareholders — and whether it's covered by cash.
No dividend to cover. Last year: $0 dividends + $0 buybacks = $0 returned on $85M FCF.
Yields use the latest fiscal-year dividends/buybacks over current market cap. Dividends and buybacks from the SEC cash-flow statement; payout coverage vs net income and free cash flow. Educational — not a recommendation.
How management deployed cash over 10 years — and what it earned on reinvestment.
A reinvestment story — most cash went back into growth rather than to shareholders.
Reinvestment has been productive — operating income grew well per dollar put in. Current ROIC on all capital: 3%. Rough measure (includes maintenance capex).
Cash uses aggregated from the SEC cash-flow statement over 10 fiscal years. "Return on reinvestment" is a rough proxy — operating-income change ÷ cumulative CapEx + M&A — and includes maintenance capex. Educational — not a recommendation.
How much the company owes, how it's trended, and how comfortably it's serviced.
Cash of $134M covers the $0 due within a year 134200000.0× over. Scheduled principal only (excludes interest & revolver draws). As of 2011-12-31 (10-K).
Green ≤ 1.5× · amber ≤ 3× · red > 3× (leverage relative to cash earnings).
Thin coverage — earnings barely cover interest. Effective rate ~5.6% on $528M of debt. Interest last disclosed in FY2022 (no longer broken out).
Cash vs short-term debt unavailable.
Mostly long-term debt (balance-sheet current vs non-current split). See the maturity ladder above for the year-by-year repayment schedule.
Debt, cash, interest and equity from the SEC balance sheet & income statement. Effective rate = interest ÷ average debt. Maturity ladder from the SEC long-term-debt repayment schedule. Educational — not a recommendation.
EOD close · as of 2026-09-17
No material risks flagged.
Where each multiple sits in its own 14-yr range · 92th pct blended
Dot = today · shaded = middle 50% · line = median. Lower percentile = cheaper vs its own 14-yr history.
Is the profit real, and how strong is the balance sheet?
FY2025 · every deduction from revenue to net income
DuPont — the three levers
Watch the leverage lever — a chunk of ROE comes from the balance sheet.
What the company owes vs. what it holds
Year-by-year maturities aren't in SEC companyfacts (footnote-only), so this shows the debt/cash structure and net leverage instead.
Latest year: profit growth vs revenue growth
High operating leverage: profit moved 3.3× as fast as sales — great in an upturn, painful in a downturn.
Each line as % of revenue — the trend in color
| % of revenue | FY2018 | FY2019 | FY2020 | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cost of Revenue | 101.2 | 101.3 | 102.3 | 94.4 | 98.3 | 96.0 | 92.3 | 89.9 |
| Gross Profit | -1.2 | -1.3 | -2.3 | 5.6 | 1.7 | 4.0 | 7.7 | 10.1 |
| SG&A | 2.1 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 3.2 |
| Operating Income | -3.1 | -3.9 | -5.0 | 3.0 | -5.4 | 1.3 | 4.9 | 6.3 |
| Income Tax | -0.0 | -0.5 | -0.2 | -1.4 | 1.7 | -0.7 | 0.1 | -0.5 |
| Net Income | -3.5 | -4.4 | -7.7 | -7.5 | -0.5 | -2.0 | 14.4 | 1.6 |
Green = margin-favorable vs the row's own range · red = unfavorable.
The metrics that matter, over time
A 30-second read on CENX: price, valuation, headline fundamentals, and an auto-generated scorecard from SEC filings. Flags are rule-based signals, not recommendations.
Top 40 institutional holders — bubble size is position value, color is the move since last quarter. Hover any holder for detail.
Drag any bubble to rearrange · size = dollar value of the position
Total return (dividends reinvested) vs the market, from quarter-end prices.
Above 0 = ahead of the S&P 500 since the window start; below 0 = behind. Rising means it's pulling ahead.
How far the stock fell below its prior peak. Deeper, longer drawdowns = a rougher ride to the same return.
Quarter-end, dividend-adjusted (total return). Beta & volatility from quarterly returns (annualized). Benchmark is the S&P 500 (SPY total return). Annual returns compound the quarters ending in each calendar year; the first and last years in a window may be partial. Past performance doesn't predict future results.
Ranked against 238 sector peers with collected financials. Valuation from latest close × latest fiscal-year fundamentals; 13F conviction as of 2026-03-31.
Percentile is “goodness” within the peer set (100 = best). For valuation and leverage that means cheaper / less-levered ranks higher.
| Company | Mkt cap ▼ | P/E | EV/EBITDA | P/S | Rev gr | Gross | Net | ROE | ROIC | Net D/EBITDA | 13F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BHP | $439.4B | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 713 |
| LIN | $215.3B | 31.4× | 19.3× | 6.3× | 3.0% | — | 20.3% | 18.0% | 10.9% | 2.1× | 2,148 |
| SCCO | $162.1B | 37.4× | 20.9× | 12.1× | 17.4% | 60.1% | 32.4% | 39.4% | 24.4% | 0.9× | 791 |
| CX | $147.8B | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 297 |
| TX | $116.5B | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 139 |
| FCX | $101.8B | — | 12.3× | 3.9× | 1.8% | 28.2% | 16.0% | 22.0% | 14.7% | 1.1× | 1,775 |
| AEM | $100.7B | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1,066 |
| SHW | $79.5B | 31.3× | — | 3.4× | 2.1% | 48.8% | 10.9% | 55.9% | 17.0% | — | 1,610 |
| ECL | $76.6B | 37.3× | 22.5× | 4.8× | 2.2% | 44.5% | 12.9% | 21.2% | 19.5% | 0.3× | 1,619 |
| B | $73.2B | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 979 |
| WPM | $69.1B | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 809 |
| APD | $63.7B | — | 90.0× | 5.3× | -0.5% | 31.4% | -3.3% | -2.6% | -2.6% | 0.1× | 1,702 |
| VALE | $61.6B | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 537 |
| NUE | $61.2B | 35.3× | — | 1.9× | 5.7% | 11.9% | 5.4% | 8.3% | 8.3% | — | 1,325 |
| CRH | $58.0B | 15.7× | 9.3× | 1.6× | 5.3% | 36.1% | 10.0% | 15.6% | 9.2% | 2.2× | 9 |
| MT | $57.2B | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 286 |
| DD | $53.6B | — | — | 7.8× | 1.9% | 34.5% | -11.4% | -5.6% | -5.6% | — | 1,172 |
| AU | $51.7B | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 537 |
| FNV | $51.4B | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 614 |
| NTR | $37.7B | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 718 |
| STLD | $35.6B | 30.7× | 19.2× | 2.0× | 3.6% | 13.2% | 6.5% | 13.2% | 9.0% | 2.1× | 893 |
| KGC | $34.2B | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 630 |
| VMC | $31.9B | 30.1× | 15.3× | 4.0× | 7.1% | 27.4% | 13.6% | 12.6% | 8.4% | 1.8× | 981 |
| MLM | $29.8B | 26.3× | 16.9× | 4.8× | 8.6% | 30.7% | 18.5% | 11.3% | 7.4% | 2.6× | 1,022 |
| PPG | $23.6B | 15.2× | — | 1.5× | 0.2% | 41.3% | 9.9% | 19.8% | 10.3% | — | 1,003 |
| CENX | $4.0B | 97.0× | 17.8× | 1.6× | 13.9% | 10.1% | 1.7% | 5.2% | 3.1% | 2.2× | 370 |
Peers = companies sharing CENX's sector (Basic Materials) with collected SEC financials. Multiples use the most recent end-of-day close and latest fiscal-year fundamentals (trailing, not forward). Missing cells mean the peer never reported that line item, has no collected price, or has a non-positive denominator. Not investment advice.