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Held by 1,203 of 5,944 reporting institutions (99th percentile) — extremely crowded.
Data as of Q1 2026
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Solve the discounted cash flow backwards, then stress-test the assumptions.
To be worth $33.51 today, the market must believe free cash flow compounds 14.1%/yr for a decade (off $1.4B normalized FCF).
The market's 14.1% is more conservative than its 9-yr track record.
2-stage DCF · 1.34B shares · net debt -$351M
mean 48.7% · volatility σ 75% · implied rate exceeded in 6/9 yrs
Central path = implied 14.1%/yr growth; shaded band = ±1σ (75%) of this company's historical FCF volatility, widening with time. The wider the band, the less certain the growth.
Reverse DCF: rather than guessing a fair value, we solve for the growth the current price implies, then you stress-test the assumptions. Enterprise value of the FCF stream, less net debt, ÷ shares. Educational — not a recommendation.
EOD close · as of 2026-09-17
How a revenue dollar becomes profit — FY2025
Each value shows its share of revenue below it (common-size).
| Line Item | FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2023 | FY2022 | FY2021 | FY2020 | FY2019 | FY2018 | FY2017 | FY2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $11.93B 100.0% | $11.31B 100.0% | $9.87B 100.0% | $8.63B 100.0% | $7.55B 100.0% | $5.98B 100.0% | $5.59B 100.0% | $4.86B 100.0% | $4.48B 100.0% | $3.90B 100.0% |
| Selling, General & Admin | $652.0M 5.5% | $697.5M 6.2% | $633.6M 6.4% | $564.2M 6.5% | $606.9M 8.0% | $466.3M 7.8% | $451.6M 8.1% | $375.5M 7.7% | $296.4M 6.6% | $276.2M 7.1% |
| Total Operating Expenses | $9.99B 83.8% | $9.40B 83.1% | $8.31B 84.2% | $7.47B 86.6% | $6.74B 89.3% | $5.69B 95.2% | $5.14B 92.1% | $4.61B 94.7% | $4.21B 94.0% | $3.87B 99.1% |
| Operating Income | $1.94B 16.2% | $1.92B 16.9% | $1.56B 15.8% | $1.16B 13.4% | $804.9M 10.7% | $290.2M 4.8% | $444.0M 7.9% | $258.4M 5.3% | $270.8M 6.0% | $34.6M 0.9% |
| Other Income (Expense), net | $73.7M 0.6% | $93.9M 0.8% | $62.7M 0.6% | $21.1M 0.2% | $7.8M 0.1% | $3.6M 0.1% | $14.3M 0.3% | $10.1M 0.2% | $4.9M 0.1% | $4.2M 0.1% |
| Pretax Income | $2.01B 16.9% | $2.01B 17.8% | $1.62B 16.4% | $1.18B 13.7% | $812.8M 10.8% | $293.8M 4.9% | $458.3M 8.2% | $268.4M 5.5% | $275.7M 6.2% | $38.7M 1.0% |
| Income Tax Expense | $473.8M 4.0% | $476.1M 4.2% | $391.8M 4.0% | $282.4M 3.3% | $159.8M 2.1% | -$62.0M -1.0% | $108.1M 1.9% | -$91.9M -1.9% | $99.5M 2.2% | $15.8M 0.4% |
| Net Income | $1.54B 12.9% | $1.53B 13.6% | $1.23B 12.4% | $899.0M 10.4% | $653.0M 8.7% | $355.8M 5.9% | $350.2M 6.3% | $176.6M 3.6% | $176.3M 3.9% | $22.9M 0.6% |
| Per Share | ||||||||||
| EPS (Basic) | $1.15 | $1.12 | $0.89 | $0.65 | $23.21 | $12.74 | $12.62 | $6.35 | $6.19 | $0.78 |
| EPS (Diluted) | $1.14 | $1.11 | $0.89 | $0.64 | $22.90 | $12.52 | $12.38 | $6.31 | $6.17 | $0.77 |
| Weighted Avg Shares (Basic) | 1.34B | 1.37B | 1.38B | 1.39B | 28.1M | 27.9M | 27.7M | 27.8M | 28.5M | 29.3M |
| Weighted Avg Shares (Diluted) | 1.34B | 1.38B | 1.39B | 1.40B | 28.5M | 28.4M | 28.3M | 28.0M | 28.6M | 29.8M |
Source: SEC EDGAR XBRL filings (annual, fiscal year). Quarterly flow items are derived from cumulative filings; balance-sheet figures are as-of each period end. Ratios and margins are computed, not reported.
Is the value real, and is the business safe? Academic scores + earnings quality + solvency, from SEC filings.
6/8 of the 9 checks — 1 couldn't be scored (see above), so the score is out of the 8 with data.
Safe > 2.99 · grey 1.81–2.99 · distress < 1.81
Needs granular two-year detail (receivables, PP&E, D&A, SG&A) — not fully reported.
Cash conversion lags reported earnings — watch accruals. Lower/negative accruals = higher quality (Sloan).
Coverage data unavailable; leverage flat year-over-year.
F-Score (0–9 fundamental momentum), Altman Z (distress risk), and Beneish M (earnings-manipulation screen) are academic models computed from the SEC filings. Screens and context — educational, not recommendations.
What the company returns to shareholders — and whether it's covered by cash.
No dividend to cover. Last year: $0 dividends + $2.4B buybacks = $2.4B returned on $1.4B FCF.
Yields use the latest fiscal-year dividends/buybacks over current market cap. Dividends and buybacks from the SEC cash-flow statement; payout coverage vs net income and free cash flow. Educational — not a recommendation.
How management deployed cash over 10 years — and what it earned on reinvestment.
A cash-return story — far more went to shareholders than back into the business (mature, low-reinvestment).
Reinvestment has been productive — operating income grew well per dollar put in. Current ROIC on all capital: 54%. Rough measure (includes maintenance capex).
Cash uses aggregated from the SEC cash-flow statement over 10 fiscal years. "Return on reinvestment" is a rough proxy — operating-income change ÷ cumulative CapEx + M&A — and includes maintenance capex. Educational — not a recommendation.
How much the company owes, how it's trended, and how comfortably it's serviced.
Green ≤ 1.5× · amber ≤ 3× · red > 3× (leverage relative to cash earnings).
Interest expense isn't separately reported — often netted into “other income (expense), net.”
Cash vs short-term debt unavailable.
Short-term / long-term split not separately reported.
Debt, cash, interest and equity from the SEC balance sheet & income statement. Effective rate = interest ÷ average debt. Educational — not a recommendation.
EOD close · as of 2026-09-17
No material risks flagged.
Where each multiple sits in its own 14-yr range · 66th pct blended
Dot = today · shaded = middle 50% · line = median. Lower percentile = cheaper vs its own 14-yr history.
Is the profit real, and how strong is the balance sheet?
FY2025 · every deduction from revenue to net income
DuPont — the three levers
Watch the leverage lever — a chunk of ROE comes from the balance sheet.
What the company owes vs. what it holds
Year-by-year maturities aren't in SEC companyfacts (footnote-only), so this shows the debt/cash structure and net leverage instead.
Latest year: profit growth vs revenue growth
Low operating leverage — profit tracks sales closely (stable, less cyclical).
Each line as % of revenue — the trend in color
| % of revenue | FY2018 | FY2019 | FY2020 | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SG&A | 7.7 | 8.1 | 7.8 | 8.0 | 6.5 | 6.4 | 6.2 | 5.5 |
| Operating Income | 5.3 | 7.9 | 4.8 | 10.7 | 13.4 | 15.8 | 16.9 | 16.2 |
| Income Tax | -1.9 | 1.9 | -1.0 | 2.1 | 3.3 | 4.0 | 4.2 | 4.0 |
| Net Income | 3.6 | 6.3 | 5.9 | 8.7 | 10.4 | 12.4 | 13.6 | 12.9 |
Green = margin-favorable vs the row's own range · red = unfavorable.
The metrics that matter, over time
A 30-second read on CMG: price, valuation, headline fundamentals, and an auto-generated scorecard from SEC filings. Flags are rule-based signals, not recommendations.
Total shares institutions bought (green) vs sold (red) each quarter across all holders.
Inferred from quarter-over-quarter change in each fund's 13F position (new stakes count as buys, exits as sells). Not tick-level trades.
Top 40 institutional holders — bubble size is position value, color is the move since last quarter. Hover any holder for detail.
Drag any bubble to rearrange · size = dollar value of the position
Total return (dividends reinvested) vs the market, from quarter-end prices.
Above 0 = ahead of the S&P 500 since the window start; below 0 = behind. Rising means it's pulling ahead.
How far the stock fell below its prior peak. Deeper, longer drawdowns = a rougher ride to the same return.
Quarter-end, dividend-adjusted (total return). Beta & volatility from quarterly returns (annualized). Benchmark is the S&P 500 (SPY total return). Annual returns compound the quarters ending in each calendar year; the first and last years in a window may be partial. Past performance doesn't predict future results.
Ranked against 490 sector peers with collected financials. Valuation from latest close × latest fiscal-year fundamentals; 13F conviction as of 2026-03-31.
Percentile is “goodness” within the peer set (100 = best). For valuation and leverage that means cheaper / less-levered ranks higher.
| Company | Mkt cap ▼ | P/E | EV/EBITDA | P/S | Rev gr | Gross | Net | ROE | ROIC | Net D/EBITDA | 13F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMZN | $2.65T | — | — | — | — | — | — | 20.5% | 16.2% | — | 5,764 |
| TSLA | $1.34T | 331.6× | 142.2× | 14.2× | -2.9% | 18.0% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 0.9× | 4,029 |
| TM | $608.8B | 59.5× | 24.6× | 2.6× | 3.8% | 18.4% | 4.4% | 7.9% | 5.9% | 1.7× | 665 |
| PDD | $448.4B | 33.4× | 32.3× | 7.3× | 14.5% | 56.3% | 22.7% | 23.7% | 23.7% | — | 548 |
| HD | $301.3B | 21.3× | 14.3× | 1.8× | 3.2% | 33.3% | 8.6% | 110% | 22.8% | 2.0× | 3,970 |
| BABA | $199.3B | 134.1× | — | 1.3× | 8.1% | 39.8% | 10.1% | 9.8% | 9.8% | — | 1,298 |
| TJX | $136.0B | 25.2× | — | 2.3× | 7.1% | 31.0% | 9.1% | 53.9% | 42.1% | — | 2,608 |
| HTHT | $131.2B | 185.7× | 113.0× | — | — | — | — | 39.7% | 27.3% | 0.7× | 258 |
| SBUX | $110.7B | 59.7× | 26.9× | 3.0× | 2.8% | — | 5.0% | -22.9% | 23.3% | 3.4× | 2,252 |
| LOW | $108.9B | 16.4× | 12.0× | 1.3× | 3.1% | 33.5% | 7.7% | -67.1% | 22.3% | 3.2× | 2,591 |
| ABNB | $102.7B | — | 38.3× | 8.4× | 10.3% | 83.0% | 20.5% | 30.6% | 24.6% | 0.8× | 1,246 |
| MELI | $93.3B | 46.7× | — | 3.2× | 39.1% | 44.5% | 6.9% | 29.6% | 12.5% | — | 1,380 |
| MAR | $89.1B | 35.2× | 20.7× | 3.4× | 4.3% | — | 9.9% | -69.0% | -69.4% | 0.0× | 1,559 |
| LKNCY | $87.3B | 170.2× | 91.9× | 12.4× | 48.9% | — | 7.3% | 23.0% | 23.0% | — | 9 |
| GM | $76.2B | 25.8× | 3.7× | 0.4× | -1.3% | — | 1.5% | 4.4% | 4.4% | — | 1,447 |
| ROST | $72.5B | 34.0× | 21.6× | 3.2× | 7.7% | 27.7% | 9.4% | 34.7% | 27.8% | 0.5× | 1,276 |
| ORLY | $70.5B | 28.2× | 19.2× | 4.0× | 6.4% | 51.6% | 14.3% | -333% | 48.3% | 1.5× | 1,569 |
| HLT | $70.4B | 49.9× | 24.2× | 5.8× | 7.7% | — | 12.1% | -27.0% | -27.0% | — | 1,126 |
| RCL | $68.8B | 16.3× | — | 3.8× | 8.8% | 49.4% | 23.8% | 42.5% | 32.3% | — | 1,114 |
| SE | $63.4B | 41.1× | 25.1× | 2.8× | 36.4% | 44.7% | 6.9% | 12.6% | 12.6% | — | 718 |
| F | $53.1B | — | 4.4× | 0.3× | 1.2% | 6.8% | -4.4% | -22.7% | -22.7% | — | — |
| NKE | $53.1B | 17.0× | — | 1.1× | 0.2% | 42.9% | 6.7% | 20.9% | 13.6% | — | 1,848 |
| EBAY | $49.0B | 25.1× | 17.8× | 4.4× | 7.9% | 71.5% | 18.3% | 45.3% | 38.8% | 0.3× | 1,182 |
| AZO | $47.8B | 19.7× | 13.3× | 2.5× | 2.4% | 52.6% | 13.2% | -73.2% | 46.4% | 2.1× | 1,245 |
| CMG | $45.0B | 29.5× | 19.4× | 3.8× | 5.4% | — | 12.9% | 54.3% | 54.3% | 0.0× | 1,203 |
Peers = companies sharing CMG's sector (Consumer Cyclical) with collected SEC financials. Multiples use the most recent end-of-day close and latest fiscal-year fundamentals (trailing, not forward). Missing cells mean the peer never reported that line item, has no collected price, or has a non-positive denominator. Not investment advice.