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Held by 195 of 5,944 reporting institutions (91th percentile) — extremely crowded.
Data as of Q1 2026
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Solve the discounted cash flow backwards, then stress-test the assumptions.
To be worth $15.09 today, the market must believe free cash flow compounds 5.7%/yr for a decade (off $74M normalized FCF).
The market's 5.7% is in line with its 9-yr track record.
2-stage DCF · 0.07B shares · net debt $213M
Reverse DCF: rather than guessing a fair value, we solve for the growth the current price implies, then you stress-test the assumptions. Enterprise value of the FCF stream, less net debt, ÷ shares. Educational — not a recommendation.
Total return (dividends reinvested) vs the market, from quarter-end prices.
Above 0 = ahead of the S&P 500 since the window start; below 0 = behind. Rising means it's pulling ahead.
How far the stock fell below its prior peak. Deeper, longer drawdowns = a rougher ride to the same return.
Quarter-end, dividend-adjusted (total return). Beta & volatility from quarterly returns (annualized). Benchmark is the S&P 500 (SPY total return). Annual returns compound the quarters ending in each calendar year; the first and last years in a window may be partial. Past performance doesn't predict future results.
Ranked against 238 sector peers with collected financials. Valuation from latest close × latest fiscal-year fundamentals; 13F conviction as of 2026-03-31.
Percentile is “goodness” within the peer set (100 = best). For valuation and leverage that means cheaper / less-levered ranks higher.
| Company | Mkt cap ▼ | P/E | EV/EBITDA | P/S | Rev gr | Gross | Net | ROE | ROIC | Net D/EBITDA | 13F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BHP | $439.4B | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 713 |
| LIN | $215.3B | 31.4× | 19.3× | 6.3× | 3.0% | — | 20.3% | 18.0% | 10.9% | 2.1× | 2,148 |
| SCCO | $162.1B | 37.4× | 20.9× | 12.1× | 17.4% | 60.1% | 32.4% | 39.4% | 24.4% | 0.9× | 791 |
| CX | $147.8B | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 297 |
| TX | $116.5B | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 139 |
| FCX | $101.8B | — | 12.3× | 3.9× | 1.8% | 28.2% | 16.0% | 22.0% | 14.7% | 1.1× | 1,775 |
| AEM | $100.7B | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1,066 |
| SHW | $79.5B | 31.3× | — | 3.4× | 2.1% | 48.8% | 10.9% | 55.9% | 17.0% | — | 1,610 |
| ECL | $76.6B | 37.3× | 22.5× | 4.8× | 2.2% | 44.5% | 12.9% | 21.2% | 19.5% | 0.3× | 1,619 |
| B | $73.2B | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 979 |
| WPM | $69.1B | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 809 |
| APD | $63.7B | — | 90.0× | 5.3× | -0.5% | 31.4% | -3.3% | -2.6% | -2.6% | 0.1× | 1,702 |
| VALE | $61.6B | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 537 |
| NUE | $61.2B | 35.3× | — | 1.9× | 5.7% | 11.9% | 5.4% | 8.3% | 8.3% | — | 1,325 |
| CRH | $58.0B | 15.7× | 9.3× | 1.6× | 5.3% | 36.1% | 10.0% | 15.6% | 9.2% | 2.2× | 9 |
| MT | $57.2B | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 286 |
| DD | $53.6B | — | — | 7.8× | 1.9% | 34.5% | -11.4% | -5.6% | -5.6% | — | 1,172 |
| AU | $51.7B | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 537 |
| FNV | $51.4B | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 614 |
| NTR | $37.7B | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 718 |
| STLD | $35.6B | 30.7× | 19.2× | 2.0× | 3.6% | 13.2% | 6.5% | 13.2% | 9.0% | 2.1× | 893 |
| KGC | $34.2B | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 630 |
| VMC | $31.9B | 30.1× | 15.3× | 4.0× | 7.1% | 27.4% | 13.6% | 12.6% | 8.4% | 1.8× | 981 |
| MLM | $29.8B | 26.3× | 16.9× | 4.8× | 8.6% | 30.7% | 18.5% | 11.3% | 7.4% | 2.6× | 1,022 |
| PPG | $23.6B | 15.2× | — | 1.5× | 0.2% | 41.3% | 9.9% | 19.8% | 10.3% | — | 1,003 |
| GPRE | $1.1B | — | 40.6× | 0.5× | -14.9% | 6.5% | -5.8% | -15.8% | -10.4% | 12.7× | 195 |
Peers = companies sharing GPRE's sector (Basic Materials) with collected SEC financials. Multiples use the most recent end-of-day close and latest fiscal-year fundamentals (trailing, not forward). Missing cells mean the peer never reported that line item, has no collected price, or has a non-positive denominator. Not investment advice.
Is the value real, and is the business safe? Academic scores + earnings quality + solvency, from SEC filings.
Safe > 2.99 · grey 1.81–2.99 · distress < 1.81
Eight indices comparing this year to last (receivables, margins, asset quality, growth, accruals, leverage). Above −1.78 suggests possible manipulation; below −2.22 is clean.
A screen, not proof — high growth alone can raise it.
Cash-conversion data unavailable. Lower/negative accruals = higher quality (Sloan).
Interest coverage is thin — monitor; leverage falling year-over-year.
F-Score (0–9 fundamental momentum), Altman Z (distress risk), and Beneish M (earnings-manipulation screen) are academic models computed from the SEC filings. Screens and context — educational, not recommendations.
What the company returns to shareholders — and whether it's covered by cash.
The dividend is comfortably covered — only 1% of free cash flow, leaving room to grow it and fund buybacks. Last year: $721000 dividends + $30M buybacks = $31M returned on $74M FCF.
Yields use the latest fiscal-year dividends/buybacks over current market cap. Dividends and buybacks from the SEC cash-flow statement; payout coverage vs net income and free cash flow. Educational — not a recommendation.
How management deployed cash over 10 years — and what it earned on reinvestment.
A reinvestment story — most cash went back into growth rather than to shareholders.
Operating income fell despite reinvestment — a warning on capital productivity. Current ROIC on all capital: -10%. Rough measure (includes maintenance capex).
Cash uses aggregated from the SEC cash-flow statement over 10 fiscal years. "Return on reinvestment" is a rough proxy — operating-income change ÷ cumulative CapEx + M&A — and includes maintenance capex. Educational — not a recommendation.
How much the company owes, how it's trended, and how comfortably it's serviced.
Cash of $182M covers the $4M due within a year 46.5× over. Scheduled principal only (excludes interest & revolver draws). As of 2025-12-31 (10-K).
Green ≤ 1.5× · amber ≤ 3× · red > 3× (leverage relative to cash earnings).
Thin coverage — earnings barely cover interest. Effective rate ~19.4% on $396M of debt.
Cash of $182M fully covers short-term debt of $34M.
Mostly long-term debt (balance-sheet current vs non-current split). See the maturity ladder above for the year-by-year repayment schedule.
Debt, cash, interest and equity from the SEC balance sheet & income statement. Effective rate = interest ÷ average debt. Maturity ladder from the SEC long-term-debt repayment schedule. Educational — not a recommendation.
EOD close · as of 2026-09-17
No standout strengths flagged.
Where each multiple sits in its own 14-yr range · 88th pct blended
Dot = today · shaded = middle 50% · line = median. Lower percentile = cheaper vs its own 14-yr history.
Is the profit real, and how strong is the balance sheet?
FY2025 · every deduction from revenue to net income
DuPont — the three levers
Watch the leverage lever — a chunk of ROE comes from the balance sheet.
What the company owes vs. what it holds
Year-by-year maturities aren't in SEC companyfacts (footnote-only), so this shows the debt/cash structure and net leverage instead.
Latest year: profit growth vs revenue growth
Profit and sales moved in opposite directions this year.
Each line as % of revenue — the trend in color
| % of revenue | FY2018 | FY2019 | FY2020 | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Profit | — | — | 5.8 | 7.1 | 3.1 | 5.0 | 5.3 | 6.5 |
| SG&A | 3.6 | 3.2 | 4.4 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 4.0 | 4.8 | 5.9 |
| Operating Income | 3.0 | -5.9 | -6.4 | 0.9 | -2.7 | -1.9 | -1.9 | -3.2 |
| Income Tax | -0.7 | -0.9 | -2.6 | 0.1 | 0.1 | -0.2 | 0.3 | -2.5 |
| Net Income | 0.5 | -6.9 | -5.7 | -2.3 | -3.5 | -2.8 | -3.4 | -5.8 |
Green = margin-favorable vs the row's own range · red = unfavorable.
The metrics that matter, over time
A 30-second read on GPRE: price, valuation, headline fundamentals, and an auto-generated scorecard from SEC filings. Flags are rule-based signals, not recommendations.
EOD close · as of 2026-09-17
How a revenue dollar becomes profit — FY2025
Each value shows its share of revenue below it (common-size).
| Line Item | FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2023 | FY2022 | FY2021 | FY2020 | FY2019 | FY2018 | FY2017 | FY2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2.09B 100.0% | $2.46B 100.0% | $3.30B 100.0% | $3.66B 100.0% | $2.83B 100.0% | $1.92B 100.0% | $2.42B 100.0% | $2.98B 100.0% | $3.29B 100.0% | $3.41B 100.0% |
| Gross Profit | $136.9M 6.5% | $130.4M 5.3% | $164.8M 5.0% | $112.7M 3.1% | $202.1M 7.1% | $111.6M 5.8% | — | — | — | — |
| Selling, General & Admin | $122.7M 5.9% | $118.0M 4.8% | $133.3M 4.0% | $118.9M 3.2% | $91.1M 3.2% | $84.9M 4.4% | $77.1M 3.2% | $108.3M 3.6% | $107.5M 3.3% | $104.7M 3.1% |
| Total Operating Expenses | $2.16B 103.2% | $2.51B 101.9% | $3.36B 101.9% | $3.76B 102.7% | $2.80B 99.1% | $2.05B 106.4% | $2.56B 105.9% | $2.89B 97.0% | $3.27B 99.3% | $3.32B 97.3% |
| Operating Income | -$67.2M -3.2% | -$47.5M -1.9% | -$61.6M -1.9% | -$98.9M -2.7% | $25.5M 0.9% | -$122.7M -6.4% | -$142.6M -5.9% | $90.0M 3.0% | $23.7M 0.7% | $91.7M 2.7% |
| Interest Expense | $76.7M 3.7% | $33.1M 1.3% | $37.7M 1.1% | $32.6M 0.9% | $67.1M 2.4% | $40.0M 2.1% | $40.2M 1.7% | $87.4M 2.9% | $83.7M 2.5% | $51.9M 1.5% |
| Interest & Investment Income | $4.2M 0.2% | $7.6M 0.3% | $11.7M 0.4% | $5.3M 0.1% | $575K 0.0% | $659K 0.0% | $4.3M 0.2% | $3.0M 0.1% | $1.6M 0.0% | $1.5M 0.0% |
| Other Income (Expense), net | -$76.6M -3.7% | -$23.8M -1.0% | -$20.8M -0.6% | $247K 0.0% | -$68.5M -2.4% | -$38.4M -2.0% | -$30.4M -1.3% | -$84.3M -2.8% | -$78.9M -2.4% | -$53.3M -1.6% |
| Pretax Income | -$143.8M -6.9% | -$71.3M -2.9% | -$82.3M -2.5% | -$98.7M -2.7% | -$43.0M -1.5% | -$161.1M -8.4% | -$172.9M -7.2% | $20.0M 0.7% | -$43.2M -1.3% | $38.4M 1.1% |
| Income Tax Expense | -$51.7M -2.5% | $6.2M 0.3% | -$5.6M -0.2% | $4.7M 0.1% | $1.8M 0.1% | -$50.4M -2.6% | -$21.3M -0.9% | -$20.1M -0.7% | -$132.1M -4.0% | $7.9M 0.2% |
| Net Income | -$121.3M -5.8% | -$82.5M -3.4% | -$93.4M -2.8% | -$127.2M -3.5% | -$66.0M -2.3% | -$108.8M -5.7% | -$166.9M -6.9% | $15.9M 0.5% | $61.1M 1.9% | $10.7M 0.3% |
| Per Share | ||||||||||
| EPS (Basic) | $-1.80 | $-1.29 | $-1.59 | $-2.29 | $-1.41 | $-3.14 | $-4.38 | $0.39 | $1.56 | $0.28 |
| EPS (Diluted) | $-1.80 | $-1.29 | $-1.59 | $-2.29 | $-1.41 | $-3.14 | $-4.38 | $0.39 | $1.47 | $0.28 |
| Weighted Avg Shares (Basic) | 67.5M | 63.8M | 58.8M | 55.5M | 46.7M | 34.6M | 38.1M | 40.3M | 39.2M | 38.3M |
| Weighted Avg Shares (Diluted) | 67.5M | 63.8M | 58.8M | 55.5M | 46.7M | 34.6M | 38.1M | 41.3M | 50.2M | 38.6M |
Source: SEC EDGAR XBRL filings (annual, fiscal year). Quarterly flow items are derived from cumulative filings; balance-sheet figures are as-of each period end. Ratios and margins are computed, not reported.