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Held by 386 of 5,944 reporting institutions (96th percentile) — extremely crowded.
Data as of Q1 2026
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Total shares institutions bought (green) vs sold (red) each quarter across all holders.
Inferred from quarter-over-quarter change in each fund's 13F position (new stakes count as buys, exits as sells). Not tick-level trades.
Solve the discounted cash flow backwards, then stress-test the assumptions.
To be worth $26.50 today, the market must believe free cash flow compounds -19.0%/yr for a decade (off $610M normalized FCF).
The market's -19.0% is more conservative than its 9-yr track record.
2-stage DCF · 0.11B shares · net debt -$944M
mean 0.6% · volatility σ 44% · implied rate exceeded in 6/9 yrs
Central path = implied -19.0%/yr growth; shaded band = ±1σ (44%) of this company's historical FCF volatility, widening with time. The wider the band, the less certain the growth.
Reverse DCF: rather than guessing a fair value, we solve for the growth the current price implies, then you stress-test the assumptions. Enterprise value of the FCF stream, less net debt, ÷ shares. Educational — not a recommendation.
Top 40 institutional holders — bubble size is position value, color is the move since last quarter. Hover any holder for detail.
Drag any bubble to rearrange · size = dollar value of the position
EOD close · as of 2026-09-17
How a revenue dollar becomes profit — FY2025
Each value shows its share of revenue below it (common-size).
| Line Item | FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2023 | FY2022 | FY2021 | FY2020 | FY2019 | FY2018 | FY2017 | FY2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $4.47B 100.0% | $5.19B 100.0% | $5.84B 100.0% | $5.76B 100.0% | $5.34B 100.0% | $4.05B 100.0% | $5.36B 100.0% | $5.72B 100.0% | $5.65B 100.0% | $6.00B 100.0% |
| Cost of Revenue | $2.74B 61.3% | $3.01B 58.0% | $3.32B 56.9% | $3.40B 59.1% | $3.24B 60.8% | $2.44B 60.1% | $3.23B 60.2% | $3.35B 58.6% | $3.27B 57.9% | $3.43B 57.1% |
| Cost of Products | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | $3.26B 57.8% | $3.42B 57.0% |
| Research & Development | — | — | $159.3M 2.7% | $158.6M 2.8% | $175.1M 3.3% | $202.4M 5.0% | $216.5M 4.0% | $191.6M 3.4% | $175.2M 3.1% | $172.3M 2.9% |
| Selling, General & Admin | $1.15B 25.7% | $1.15B 22.1% | $1.18B 20.1% | $1.08B 18.8% | $1.05B 19.7% | $1.05B 25.9% | $1.20B 22.4% | $1.26B 22.0% | $1.18B 20.9% | $1.21B 20.2% |
| Total Operating Expenses | $4.09B 91.4% | $4.77B 92.0% | $5.06B 86.7% | $4.85B 84.2% | $4.51B 84.6% | $4.04B 99.8% | $4.81B 89.6% | $5.00B 87.5% | $4.77B 84.4% | $4.95B 82.6% |
| Operating Income | $386.6M 8.6% | $416.6M 8.0% | $779.1M 13.3% | $909.3M 15.8% | $823.4M 15.4% | $9.7M 0.2% | $555.6M 10.4% | $713.5M 12.5% | $882.1M 15.6% | $1.05B 17.4% |
| Interest Expense | $33.4M 0.7% | $30.7M 0.6% | $30.8M 0.5% | $31.2M 0.5% | $31.0M 0.6% | $31.1M 0.8% | $31.1M 0.6% | $30.9M 0.5% | $31.0M 0.5% | $29.7M 0.5% |
| Other Income (Expense), net | $61.3M 1.4% | $72.3M 1.4% | $71.8M 1.2% | $48.7M 0.8% | $20.1M 0.4% | -$1.8M -0.0% | $16.5M 0.3% | $3.0M 0.1% | $9.2M 0.2% | $2.6M 0.0% |
| Pretax Income | $458.7M 10.3% | $517.1M 10.0% | $866.9M 14.9% | $931.2M 16.2% | $819.2M 15.4% | -$15.7M -0.4% | $557.4M 10.4% | $686.6M 12.0% | $863.8M 15.3% | $1.02B 17.1% |
| Income Tax Expense | $129.6M 2.9% | $72.0M 1.4% | $171.8M 2.9% | $192.0M 3.3% | $169.2M 3.2% | -$17.0M -0.4% | $133.8M 2.5% | $155.2M 2.7% | $342.1M 6.1% | $331.7M 5.5% |
| Net Income | $338.7M 7.6% | $455.4M 8.8% | $706.6M 12.1% | $741.4M 12.9% | $650.0M 12.2% | $1.3M 0.0% | $423.6M 7.9% | $531.5M 9.3% | $521.8M 9.2% | $692.2M 11.5% |
| Per Share | ||||||||||
| EPS (Basic) | $2.82 | $3.46 | $4.96 | $5.01 | $4.23 | $0.01 | $2.70 | $3.21 | $3.03 | $3.85 |
| EPS (Diluted) | $2.78 | $3.44 | $4.87 | $4.96 | $4.19 | $0.01 | $2.68 | $3.19 | $3.02 | $3.83 |
| Weighted Avg Shares (Basic) | 120.1M | 131.4M | 142.4M | 148.0M | 153.7M | 153.2M | 157.1M | 165.7M | 172.0M | 179.7M |
| Weighted Avg Shares (Diluted) | 121.3M | 132.3M | 145.1M | 149.4M | 155.0M | 153.9M | 157.8M | 166.5M | 172.9M | 180.5M |
Source: SEC EDGAR XBRL filings (annual, fiscal year). Quarterly flow items are derived from cumulative filings; balance-sheet figures are as-of each period end. Ratios and margins are computed, not reported.
Is the value real, and is the business safe? Academic scores + earnings quality + solvency, from SEC filings.
Insufficient balance-sheet detail (needs retained earnings, working capital, equity).
Eight indices comparing this year to last (receivables, margins, asset quality, growth, accruals, leverage). Above −1.78 suggests possible manipulation; below −2.22 is clean.
A screen, not proof — high growth alone can raise it.
Earnings are backed by cash (FCF ≥ net income) — high quality. Lower/negative accruals = higher quality (Sloan).
Comfortably covers interest; leverage falling year-over-year.
F-Score (0–9 fundamental momentum), Altman Z (distress risk), and Beneish M (earnings-manipulation screen) are academic models computed from the SEC filings. Screens and context — educational, not recommendations.
What the company returns to shareholders — and whether it's covered by cash.
The dividend is comfortably covered — only 21% of free cash flow, leaving room to grow it and fund buybacks. Last year: $86M dividends + $353M buybacks = $440M returned on $415M FCF.
5 consecutive years of dividend increases · -7%/yr.
Yields use the latest fiscal-year dividends/buybacks over current market cap. Dividends and buybacks from the SEC cash-flow statement; payout coverage vs net income and free cash flow. Educational — not a recommendation.
How management deployed cash over 10 years — and what it earned on reinvestment.
A cash-return story — far more went to shareholders than back into the business (mature, low-reinvestment).
Operating income fell despite reinvestment — a warning on capital productivity. Current ROIC on all capital: 6%. Rough measure (includes maintenance capex).
Cash uses aggregated from the SEC cash-flow statement over 10 fiscal years. "Return on reinvestment" is a rough proxy — operating-income change ÷ cumulative CapEx + M&A — and includes maintenance capex. Educational — not a recommendation.
How much the company owes, how it's trended, and how comfortably it's serviced.
Cash of $3.1B covers all $3.0B of scheduled principal — no refinancing pressure. Scheduled principal only (excludes interest & revolver draws). As of 2025-12-31 (10-K).
Green ≤ 1.5× · amber ≤ 3× · red > 3× (leverage relative to cash earnings).
Interest is easily covered by operating profit. Effective rate ~1.6% on $2.1B of debt.
Cash of $3.1B fully covers short-term debt of $498M.
Mostly long-term debt (balance-sheet current vs non-current split). See the maturity ladder above for the year-by-year repayment schedule.
Debt, cash, interest and equity from the SEC balance sheet & income statement. Effective rate = interest ÷ average debt. Maturity ladder from the SEC long-term-debt repayment schedule. Educational — not a recommendation.
EOD close · as of 2026-09-17
Where each multiple sits in its own 14-yr range · 18th pct blended
Dot = today · shaded = middle 50% · line = median. Lower percentile = cheaper vs its own 14-yr history.
Is the profit real, and how strong is the balance sheet?
FY2025 · every deduction from revenue to net income
DuPont — the three levers
Watch the leverage lever — a chunk of ROE comes from the balance sheet.
What the company owes vs. what it holds
Year-by-year maturities aren't in SEC companyfacts (footnote-only), so this shows the debt/cash structure and net leverage instead.
Latest year: profit growth vs revenue growth
Low operating leverage — profit tracks sales closely (stable, less cyclical).
Each line as % of revenue — the trend in color
| % of revenue | FY2018 | FY2019 | FY2020 | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cost of Revenue | 58.6 | 60.2 | 60.1 | 60.8 | 59.1 | 56.9 | 58.0 | 61.3 |
| R&D | 3.4 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 3.3 | 2.8 | 2.7 | — | — |
| SG&A | 22.0 | 22.4 | 25.9 | 19.7 | 18.8 | 20.1 | 22.1 | 25.7 |
| Operating Income | 12.5 | 10.4 | 0.2 | 15.4 | 15.8 | 13.3 | 8.0 | 8.6 |
| Income Tax | 2.7 | 2.5 | -0.4 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 2.9 |
| Net Income | 9.3 | 7.9 | 0.0 | 12.2 | 12.9 | 12.1 | 8.8 | 7.6 |
Green = margin-favorable vs the row's own range · red = unfavorable.
The metrics that matter, over time
A 30-second read on HOG: price, valuation, headline fundamentals, and an auto-generated scorecard from SEC filings. Flags are rule-based signals, not recommendations.
Total return (dividends reinvested) vs the market, from quarter-end prices.
Above 0 = ahead of the S&P 500 since the window start; below 0 = behind. Rising means it's pulling ahead.
How far the stock fell below its prior peak. Deeper, longer drawdowns = a rougher ride to the same return.
Quarter-end, dividend-adjusted (total return). Beta & volatility from quarterly returns (annualized). Benchmark is the S&P 500 (SPY total return). Annual returns compound the quarters ending in each calendar year; the first and last years in a window may be partial. Past performance doesn't predict future results.
Ranked against 490 sector peers with collected financials. Valuation from latest close × latest fiscal-year fundamentals; 13F conviction as of 2026-03-31.
Percentile is “goodness” within the peer set (100 = best). For valuation and leverage that means cheaper / less-levered ranks higher.
| Company | Mkt cap ▼ | P/E | EV/EBITDA | P/S | Rev gr | Gross | Net | ROE | ROIC | Net D/EBITDA | 13F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMZN | $2.65T | — | — | — | — | — | — | 20.5% | 16.2% | — | 5,764 |
| TSLA | $1.34T | 331.6× | 142.2× | 14.2× | -2.9% | 18.0% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 0.9× | 4,029 |
| TM | $608.8B | 59.5× | 24.6× | 2.6× | 3.8% | 18.4% | 4.4% | 7.9% | 5.9% | 1.7× | 665 |
| PDD | $448.4B | 33.4× | 32.3× | 7.3× | 14.5% | 56.3% | 22.7% | 23.7% | 23.7% | — | 548 |
| HD | $301.3B | 21.3× | 14.3× | 1.8× | 3.2% | 33.3% | 8.6% | 110% | 22.8% | 2.0× | 3,970 |
| BABA | $199.3B | 134.1× | — | 1.3× | 8.1% | 39.8% | 10.1% | 9.8% | 9.8% | — | 1,298 |
| TJX | $136.0B | 25.2× | — | 2.3× | 7.1% | 31.0% | 9.1% | 53.9% | 42.1% | — | 2,608 |
| HTHT | $131.2B | 185.7× | 113.0× | — | — | — | — | 39.7% | 27.3% | 0.7× | 258 |
| SBUX | $110.7B | 59.7× | 26.9× | 3.0× | 2.8% | — | 5.0% | -22.9% | 23.3% | 3.4× | 2,252 |
| LOW | $108.9B | 16.4× | 12.0× | 1.3× | 3.1% | 33.5% | 7.7% | -67.1% | 22.3% | 3.2× | 2,591 |
| ABNB | $102.7B | — | 38.3× | 8.4× | 10.3% | 83.0% | 20.5% | 30.6% | 24.6% | 0.8× | 1,246 |
| MELI | $93.3B | 46.7× | — | 3.2× | 39.1% | 44.5% | 6.9% | 29.6% | 12.5% | — | 1,380 |
| MAR | $89.1B | 35.2× | 20.7× | 3.4× | 4.3% | — | 9.9% | -69.0% | -69.4% | 0.0× | 1,559 |
| LKNCY | $87.3B | 170.2× | 91.9× | 12.4× | 48.9% | — | 7.3% | 23.0% | 23.0% | — | 9 |
| GM | $76.2B | 25.8× | 3.7× | 0.4× | -1.3% | — | 1.5% | 4.4% | 4.4% | — | 1,447 |
| ROST | $72.5B | 34.0× | 21.6× | 3.2× | 7.7% | 27.7% | 9.4% | 34.7% | 27.8% | 0.5× | 1,276 |
| ORLY | $70.5B | 28.2× | 19.2× | 4.0× | 6.4% | 51.6% | 14.3% | -333% | 48.3% | 1.5× | 1,569 |
| HLT | $70.4B | 49.9× | 24.2× | 5.8× | 7.7% | — | 12.1% | -27.0% | -27.0% | — | 1,126 |
| RCL | $68.8B | 16.3× | — | 3.8× | 8.8% | 49.4% | 23.8% | 42.5% | 32.3% | — | 1,114 |
| SE | $63.4B | 41.1× | 25.1× | 2.8× | 36.4% | 44.7% | 6.9% | 12.6% | 12.6% | — | 718 |
| F | $53.1B | — | 4.4× | 0.3× | 1.2% | 6.8% | -4.4% | -22.7% | -22.7% | — | — |
| NKE | $53.1B | 17.0× | — | 1.1× | 0.2% | 42.9% | 6.7% | 20.9% | 13.6% | — | 1,848 |
| EBAY | $49.0B | 25.1× | 17.8× | 4.4× | 7.9% | 71.5% | 18.3% | 45.3% | 38.8% | 0.3× | 1,182 |
| AZO | $47.8B | 19.7× | 13.3× | 2.5× | 2.4% | 52.6% | 13.2% | -73.2% | 46.4% | 2.1× | 1,245 |
| CMG | $45.0B | 29.5× | 19.4× | 3.8× | 5.4% | — | 12.9% | 54.3% | 54.3% | 0.0× | 1,203 |
| HOG | $3.0B | 9.7× | 3.7× | 0.7× | -13.8% | 38.7% | 7.6% | 10.8% | 6.4% | 3.8× | 386 |
Peers = companies sharing HOG's sector (Consumer Cyclical) with collected SEC financials. Multiples use the most recent end-of-day close and latest fiscal-year fundamentals (trailing, not forward). Missing cells mean the peer never reported that line item, has no collected price, or has a non-positive denominator. Not investment advice.