Loading institutional data...
Loading institutional data...
Held by 1,406 of 5,944 reporting institutions (99th percentile) — extremely crowded.
Data as of Q1 2026
Loading snapshot...
Loading financials...
Loading valuation...
Loading quality & risk...
Loading dividends & returns...
Loading capital allocation...
Loading debt & leverage...
Loading performance...
Loading peer comparison...
Loading ownership map...
Loading crowding analysis...
Loading conviction analysis...
Loading buy/sell flow...
Loading ownership trends...
Loading top holders...
Loading top holders...
Solve the discounted cash flow backwards, then stress-test the assumptions.
To be worth $168.33 today, the market must believe free cash flow compounds 9.1%/yr for a decade (off $1.8B normalized FCF).
The market's 9.1% is more conservative than its 9-yr track record.
2-stage DCF · 0.20B shares · net debt $4.9B
mean 11.9% · volatility σ 18% · implied rate exceeded in 6/9 yrs
Central path = implied 9.1%/yr growth; shaded band = ±1σ (18%) of this company's historical FCF volatility, widening with time. The wider the band, the less certain the growth.
Reverse DCF: rather than guessing a fair value, we solve for the growth the current price implies, then you stress-test the assumptions. Enterprise value of the FCF stream, less net debt, ÷ shares. Educational — not a recommendation.
Total shares institutions bought (green) vs sold (red) each quarter across all holders.
Inferred from quarter-over-quarter change in each fund's 13F position (new stakes count as buys, exits as sells). Not tick-level trades.
Is the value real, and is the business safe? Academic scores + earnings quality + solvency, from SEC filings.
Safe > 2.99 · grey 1.81–2.99 · distress < 1.81
Eight indices comparing this year to last (receivables, margins, asset quality, growth, accruals, leverage). Above −1.78 suggests possible manipulation; below −2.22 is clean.
A screen, not proof — high growth alone can raise it.
Earnings are backed by cash (FCF ≥ net income) — high quality. Lower/negative accruals = higher quality (Sloan).
Comfortably covers interest; leverage rising year-over-year.
F-Score (0–9 fundamental momentum), Altman Z (distress risk), and Beneish M (earnings-manipulation screen) are academic models computed from the SEC filings. Screens and context — educational, not recommendations.
What the company returns to shareholders — and whether it's covered by cash.
The dividend is comfortably covered — only 60% of free cash flow, leaving room to grow it and fund buybacks. Last year: $1.1B dividends + $0 buybacks = $1.1B returned on $1.8B FCF.
Yields use the latest fiscal-year dividends/buybacks over current market cap. Dividends and buybacks from the SEC cash-flow statement; payout coverage vs net income and free cash flow. Educational — not a recommendation.
How management deployed cash over 10 years — and what it earned on reinvestment.
A balanced mix of reinvestment and shareholder returns.
Modest payoff on reinvested capital. Current ROIC on all capital: 9%. Rough measure (includes maintenance capex).
Cash uses aggregated from the SEC cash-flow statement over 10 fiscal years. "Return on reinvestment" is a rough proxy — operating-income change ÷ cumulative CapEx + M&A — and includes maintenance capex. Educational — not a recommendation.
How much the company owes, how it's trended, and how comfortably it's serviced.
$500M of principal comes due within a year. Scheduled principal only (excludes interest & revolver draws). As of 2025-12-31 (10-K).
Green ≤ 1.5× · amber ≤ 3× · red > 3× (leverage relative to cash earnings).
Interest is easily covered by operating profit. Effective rate ~4.6% on $4.9B of debt.
Cash vs short-term debt unavailable.
Mostly long-term debt (balance-sheet current vs non-current split). See the maturity ladder above for the year-by-year repayment schedule.
Debt, cash, interest and equity from the SEC balance sheet & income statement. Effective rate = interest ÷ average debt. Maturity ladder from the SEC long-term-debt repayment schedule. Educational — not a recommendation.
EOD close · as of 2026-09-17
How a revenue dollar becomes profit — FY2025
Each value shows its share of revenue below it (common-size).
| Line Item | FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2023 | FY2022 | FY2021 | FY2020 | FY2019 | FY2018 | FY2017 | FY2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $11.69B 100.0% | $11.20B 100.0% | $11.16B 100.0% | $10.42B 100.0% | $8.97B 100.0% | $8.15B 100.0% | $7.99B 100.0% | $7.79B 100.0% | $7.52B 100.0% | $7.44B 100.0% |
| Cost of Revenue | $7.77B 66.5% | $5.90B 52.7% | $6.17B 55.2% | $5.92B 56.8% | $4.92B 54.9% | $4.45B 54.6% | $4.36B 54.6% | $4.22B 54.1% | $4.06B 54.0% | $4.27B 57.4% |
| Cost of Products | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | $4.06B 54.0% | $4.27B 57.4% |
| Gross Profit | $3.92B 33.5% | $5.30B 47.3% | $5.00B 44.8% | $4.50B 43.2% | $4.05B 45.1% | $3.70B 45.4% | $3.62B 45.4% | $3.58B 45.9% | $3.46B 46.0% | $3.17B 42.6% |
| Research & Development | $61.7M 0.5% | $55.8M 0.5% | $50.0M 0.4% | $46.9M 0.5% | $40.1M 0.4% | $37.6M 0.5% | $37.1M 0.5% | $38.5M 0.5% | $45.9M 0.6% | $47.3M 0.6% |
| Selling, General & Admin | $2.46B 21.0% | $2.37B 21.2% | $2.44B 21.8% | $2.24B 21.5% | $2.00B 22.3% | $1.89B 23.2% | $1.91B 23.9% | $1.87B 24.1% | $1.89B 25.1% | $1.89B 25.4% |
| Operating Income | $1.44B 12.3% | $2.90B 25.9% | $2.56B 22.9% | $2.26B 21.7% | $2.04B 22.8% | $1.78B 21.9% | $1.60B 20.0% | $1.62B 20.8% | $1.31B 17.5% | $1.26B 16.9% |
| Interest Expense | $224.8M 1.9% | $174.3M 1.6% | $161.5M 1.4% | $140.1M 1.3% | $129.8M 1.4% | $153.5M 1.9% | $152.1M 1.9% | $146.9M 1.9% | $100.1M 1.3% | $91.9M 1.2% |
| Interest & Investment Income | $34.6M 0.3% | $8.7M 0.1% | $9.7M 0.1% | $2.5M 0.0% | $2.4M 0.0% | $4.1M 0.1% | $8.0M 0.1% | $8.0M 0.1% | $1.8M 0.0% | $1.8M 0.0% |
| Other Income (Expense), net | -$37.1M -0.3% | -$258.6M -2.3% | -$237.2M -2.1% | -$206.2M -2.0% | -$119.1M -1.3% | -$138.3M -1.7% | -$71.0M -0.9% | -$74.8M -1.0% | -$104.5M -1.4% | -$65.5M -0.9% |
| Pretax Income | $1.21B 10.4% | $2.47B 22.1% | $2.17B 19.5% | $1.92B 18.4% | $1.80B 20.0% | $1.49B 18.3% | $1.38B 17.3% | $1.41B 18.1% | $1.11B 14.8% | $1.10B 14.8% |
| Income Tax Expense | $330.9M 2.8% | $252.7M 2.3% | $310.1M 2.8% | $272.3M 2.6% | $314.4M 3.5% | $219.6M 2.7% | $234.0M 2.9% | $239.0M 3.1% | $354.1M 4.7% | $379.4M 5.1% |
| Net Income | $883.3M 7.6% | $2.22B 19.8% | $1.86B 16.7% | $1.64B 15.8% | $1.48B 16.5% | $1.28B 15.7% | $1.15B 14.4% | $1.18B 15.1% | $783.0M 10.4% | $720.0M 9.7% |
Source: SEC EDGAR XBRL filings (annual, fiscal year). Quarterly flow items are derived from cumulative filings; balance-sheet figures are as-of each period end. Ratios and margins are computed, not reported.
Top 40 institutional holders — bubble size is position value, color is the move since last quarter. Hover any holder for detail.
Drag any bubble to rearrange · size = dollar value of the position
Ranked against 229 sector peers with collected financials. Valuation from latest close × latest fiscal-year fundamentals; 13F conviction as of 2026-03-31.
Percentile is “goodness” within the peer set (100 = best). For valuation and leverage that means cheaper / less-levered ranks higher.
| Company | Mkt cap ▼ | P/E | EV/EBITDA | P/S | Rev gr | Gross | Net | ROE | ROIC | Net D/EBITDA | 13F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WMT | $852.5B | 39.1× | — | 1.2× | 4.7% | 24.9% | 3.1% | 22.0% | 15.5% | — | 4,273 |
| COST | $396.2B | 49.1× | 30.3× | 1.4× | 8.2% | 12.8% | 2.9% | 27.8% | 23.2% | 0.5× | 4,050 |
| KO | $378.9B | 29.0× | 24.9× | 7.9× | 1.9% | 61.6% | 27.3% | 40.7% | 40.7% | — | 3,427 |
| PG | $346.8B | 22.7× | 16.4× | 4.1× | 0.3% | 51.2% | 19.0% | 30.6% | 18.4% | 1.5× | 3,849 |
| PM | $296.4B | 26.2× | 17.3× | 7.3× | 7.3% | 67.1% | 27.9% | -114% | -115% | 0.0× | 2,744 |
| PEP | $183.0B | 22.3× | 14.9× | 1.9× | 2.3% | 54.1% | 8.8% | 40.4% | 11.8% | 3.3× | 3,404 |
| MO | $116.7B | 16.9× | 13.6× | 5.0× | -3.1% | 62.5% | 29.8% | -198% | 31.3% | 2.5× | 2,375 |
| MDLZ | $80.3B | 32.8× | 18.9× | 2.1× | 5.8% | 28.4% | 6.4% | 9.5% | 8.6% | 0.6× | 1,821 |
| TGT | $72.4B | 19.7× | 10.5× | 0.7× | -1.7% | 27.9% | 3.5% | 22.9% | 12.1% | 1.7× | 1,771 |
| CL | $70.3B | 33.4× | 19.6× | 3.5× | 1.4% | 60.1% | 10.5% | 3948% | 26.5% | 2.0× | 1,873 |
| MNST | $43.5B | — | 16.4× | 5.3× | 10.7% | 55.8% | 23.0% | 23.1% | 23.1% | — | 1,169 |
| KDP | $42.7B | 20.5× | 14.3× | 2.6× | 8.2% | 54.2% | 12.5% | 8.1% | 5.0% | 4.0× | 784 |
| ADM | $42.6B | 39.5× | — | 0.5× | -6.2% | 6.3% | 1.3% | 4.7% | 3.6% | — | 1,070 |
| FMX | $41.0B | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 290 |
| JBS | $39.7B | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 241 |
| KR | $39.6B | 39.5× | 10.0× | 0.3× | 0.4% | — | 0.7% | 17.1% | 4.7% | 3.0× | 1,327 |
| SYY | $38.6B | 21.2× | 9.7× | 0.5× | 3.2% | 18.4% | 2.2% | 99.9% | 99.9% | — | 1,489 |
| KVUE | $34.2B | 23.5× | 11.7× | 2.3× | -2.1% | 58.1% | 9.7% | 13.7% | 12.0% | 0.5× | 967 |
| HSY | $34.1B | — | 20.1× | 2.9× | 4.4% | 33.5% | 7.6% | 19.0% | 9.3% | 2.5× | 1,406 |
| EL | $33.8B | — | 768.2× | 2.4× | -8.2% | 74.0% | -7.9% | -29.3% | -29.3% | 0.1× | 800 |
| KMB | $32.6B | 16.2× | 10.3× | 2.0× | -2.1% | 36.0% | 12.3% | 135% | 92.0% | 0.2× | 1,585 |
| KHC | $29.3B | — | — | 1.2× | -3.5% | 33.3% | -23.4% | -14.0% | -14.0% | — | 1,059 |
| DG | $27.5B | 18.2× | 8.1× | 0.6× | 5.2% | 30.7% | 3.5% | 17.8% | 17.8% | — | 1,099 |
| KOF | $23.6B | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 249 |
| CHD | $23.1B | 31.5× | 18.8× | 3.7× | 1.6% | 44.7% | 11.9% | 18.4% | 11.9% | 1.7× | 1,004 |
Peers = companies sharing HSY's sector (Consumer Defensive) with collected SEC financials. Multiples use the most recent end-of-day close and latest fiscal-year fundamentals (trailing, not forward). Missing cells mean the peer never reported that line item, has no collected price, or has a non-positive denominator. Not investment advice.
Total return (dividends reinvested) vs the market, from quarter-end prices.
Above 0 = ahead of the S&P 500 since the window start; below 0 = behind. Rising means it's pulling ahead.
How far the stock fell below its prior peak. Deeper, longer drawdowns = a rougher ride to the same return.
Quarter-end, dividend-adjusted (total return). Beta & volatility from quarterly returns (annualized). Benchmark is the S&P 500 (SPY total return). Annual returns compound the quarters ending in each calendar year; the first and last years in a window may be partial. Past performance doesn't predict future results.
EOD close · as of 2026-09-17
No material risks flagged.
Where each multiple sits in its own 14-yr range · 45th pct blended
Dot = today · shaded = middle 50% · line = median. Lower percentile = cheaper vs its own 14-yr history.
Is the profit real, and how strong is the balance sheet?
FY2025 · every deduction from revenue to net income
DuPont — the three levers
Watch the leverage lever — a chunk of ROE comes from the balance sheet.
What the company owes vs. what it holds
Year-by-year maturities aren't in SEC companyfacts (footnote-only), so this shows the debt/cash structure and net leverage instead.
Latest year: profit growth vs revenue growth
Profit and sales moved in opposite directions this year.
Each line as % of revenue — the trend in color
| % of revenue | FY2018 | FY2019 | FY2020 | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cost of Revenue | 54.1 | 54.6 | 54.6 | 54.9 | 56.8 | 55.2 | 52.7 | 66.5 |
| Gross Profit | 45.9 | 45.4 | 45.4 | 45.1 | 43.2 | 44.8 | 47.3 | 33.5 |
| R&D | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| SG&A | 24.1 | 23.9 | 23.2 | 22.3 | 21.5 | 21.8 | 21.2 | 21.0 |
| Operating Income | 20.8 | 20.0 | 21.9 | 22.8 | 21.7 | 22.9 | 25.9 | 12.3 |
| Income Tax | 3.1 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 3.5 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 2.8 |
| Net Income | 15.1 | 14.4 | 15.7 | 16.5 | 15.8 | 16.7 | 19.8 | 7.6 |
Green = margin-favorable vs the row's own range · red = unfavorable.
The metrics that matter, over time
A 30-second read on HSY: price, valuation, headline fundamentals, and an auto-generated scorecard from SEC filings. Flags are rule-based signals, not recommendations.