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Held by 347 of 5,944 reporting institutions (95th percentile) — extremely crowded.
Data as of Q1 2026
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Solve the discounted cash flow backwards, then stress-test the assumptions.
To be worth $25.19 today, the market must believe free cash flow compounds -17.8%/yr for a decade (off $1.4B normalized FCF).
The market's -17.8% is more conservative than its 8-yr track record.
2-stage DCF · 0.10B shares · net debt $2.4B
mean 59.7% · volatility σ 82% · implied rate exceeded in 8/8 yrs
Central path = implied -17.8%/yr growth; shaded band = ±1σ (82%) of this company's historical FCF volatility, widening with time. The wider the band, the less certain the growth.
Reverse DCF: rather than guessing a fair value, we solve for the growth the current price implies, then you stress-test the assumptions. Enterprise value of the FCF stream, less net debt, ÷ shares. Educational — not a recommendation.
Total shares institutions bought (green) vs sold (red) each quarter across all holders.
Inferred from quarter-over-quarter change in each fund's 13F position (new stakes count as buys, exits as sells). Not tick-level trades.
Total return (dividends reinvested) vs the market, from quarter-end prices.
Above 0 = ahead of the S&P 500 since the window start; below 0 = behind. Rising means it's pulling ahead.
How far the stock fell below its prior peak. Deeper, longer drawdowns = a rougher ride to the same return.
Quarter-end, dividend-adjusted (total return). Beta & volatility from quarterly returns (annualized). Benchmark is the S&P 500 (SPY total return). Annual returns compound the quarters ending in each calendar year; the first and last years in a window may be partial. Past performance doesn't predict future results.
Ranked against 238 sector peers with collected financials. Valuation from latest close × latest fiscal-year fundamentals; 13F conviction as of 2026-03-31.
Percentile is “goodness” within the peer set (100 = best). For valuation and leverage that means cheaper / less-levered ranks higher.
| Company | Mkt cap ▼ | P/E | EV/EBITDA | P/S | Rev gr | Gross | Net | ROE | ROIC | Net D/EBITDA | 13F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XOM | $682.3B | 24.4× | — | 2.0× | -5.0% | — | 8.7% | 11.1% | 10.7% | — | 4,568 |
| SHEL | $545.2B | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1,521 |
| CVX | $391.2B | 31.9× | — | 2.1× | -6.8% | 42.8% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.6% | — | 4,121 |
| TTE | $202.1B | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 951 |
| COP | $166.8B | 21.0× | — | 2.8× | 7.7% | 62.1% | 13.6% | 12.4% | 12.2% | — | 2,450 |
| PBR | $155.8B | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 524 |
| MPC | $128.7B | 31.9× | 11.0× | 1.0× | -4.4% | 10.0% | 3.0% | 23.4% | 20.6% | 0.2× | 1,802 |
| VLO | $127.5B | 54.5× | 24.1× | 1.0× | -5.5% | 4.4% | 1.9% | 9.9% | 7.1% | 1.7× | 1,781 |
| BP | $117.0B | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1,220 |
| PSX | $111.3B | 25.4× | — | 0.8× | -7.5% | 12.3% | 3.3% | 15.1% | 14.6% | — | 2,041 |
| EQNR | $110.8B | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 398 |
| WMB | $87.7B | 33.6× | 17.8× | 7.3× | 13.8% | — | 21.9% | 20.4% | 6.3% | 4.4× | 1,736 |
| EPD | $84.1B | — | 12.6× | 1.6× | -6.4% | 26.7% | 11.0% | — | — | 3.7× | 1,573 |
| EOG | $79.0B | 15.9× | 7.7× | 3.5× | -4.5% | — | 22.0% | 16.7% | 13.2% | 0.7× | 1,525 |
| SLB | $77.9B | 22.2× | — | 2.2× | -1.6% | — | 9.4% | 12.9% | 9.4% | — | 1,624 |
| ET | $72.5B | — | 9.8× | 0.8× | 3.5% | 25.8% | 5.2% | 9.0% | 3.8% | 4.8× | 1,244 |
| KMI | $69.7B | 22.9× | 14.2× | 4.1× | 12.2% | — | 18.0% | 9.8% | 4.8% | 4.5× | 1,745 |
| TRGP | $61.2B | 33.6× | 16.2× | 3.6× | 3.9% | 38.3% | 11.3% | 62.7% | 9.4% | 3.6× | 979 |
| TS | $60.6B | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 248 |
| MPLX | $59.4B | — | — | 4.6× | 8.9% | — | 38.1% | — | — | — | 622 |
| LNG | $59.3B | 11.2× | 7.8× | 3.0× | 27.2% | — | 26.7% | 67.3% | 17.3% | 2.2× | 1,303 |
| OKE | $58.7B | 17.2× | 12.4× | 1.8× | 55.0% | 30.5% | 10.1% | 15.1% | 6.3% | 4.4× | 1,622 |
| OXY | $58.5B | 36.8× | — | 2.7× | -1.9% | — | 11.0% | 6.6% | 4.2% | — | 1,250 |
| BKR | $56.2B | — | — | 2.0× | -0.3% | — | 9.3% | 13.7% | 13.3% | — | 1,095 |
| FANG | $56.0B | 34.4× | 11.2× | 3.7× | 35.8% | — | 11.1% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 2.3× | 1,141 |
| NOG | $2.5B | 64.6× | — | 1.0× | 11.2% | 80.9% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 0.9% | — | 347 |
Peers = companies sharing NOG's sector (Energy) with collected SEC financials. Multiples use the most recent end-of-day close and latest fiscal-year fundamentals (trailing, not forward). Missing cells mean the peer never reported that line item, has no collected price, or has a non-positive denominator. Not investment advice.
Is the value real, and is the business safe? Academic scores + earnings quality + solvency, from SEC filings.
Safe > 2.99 · grey 1.81–2.99 · distress < 1.81
Eight indices comparing this year to last (receivables, margins, asset quality, growth, accruals, leverage). Above −1.78 suggests possible manipulation; below −2.22 is clean.
A screen, not proof — high growth alone can raise it.
Earnings are backed by cash (FCF ≥ net income) — high quality. Lower/negative accruals = higher quality (Sloan).
Interest coverage is thin — monitor.
F-Score (0–9 fundamental momentum), Altman Z (distress risk), and Beneish M (earnings-manipulation screen) are academic models computed from the SEC filings. Screens and context — educational, not recommendations.
What the company returns to shareholders — and whether it's covered by cash.
The dividend is comfortably covered — only 12% of free cash flow, leaving room to grow it and fund buybacks. Last year: $173M dividends + $57M buybacks = $230M returned on $1.5B FCF.
5 consecutive years of dividend increases · 130%/yr.
Yields use the latest fiscal-year dividends/buybacks over current market cap. Dividends and buybacks from the SEC cash-flow statement; payout coverage vs net income and free cash flow. Educational — not a recommendation.
How management deployed cash over 10 years — and what it earned on reinvestment.
A cash-return story — far more went to shareholders than back into the business (mature, low-reinvestment).
Reinvestment has been productive — operating income grew well per dollar put in. Current ROIC on all capital: 1%. Rough measure (includes maintenance capex).
Cash uses aggregated from the SEC cash-flow statement over 10 fiscal years. "Return on reinvestment" is a rough proxy — operating-income change ÷ cumulative CapEx + M&A — and includes maintenance capex. Educational — not a recommendation.
How much the company owes, how it's trended, and how comfortably it's serviced.
Insufficient EBITDA/debt history.
Green ≤ 1.5× · amber ≤ 3× · red > 3× (leverage relative to cash earnings).
Thin coverage — earnings barely cover interest. Effective rate ~7.2% on $2.4B of debt.
Cash vs short-term debt unavailable.
Mostly long-term debt (balance-sheet current vs non-current split). A year-by-year maturity schedule wasn't disclosed for this issuer.
Debt, cash, interest and equity from the SEC balance sheet & income statement. Effective rate = interest ÷ average debt. Educational — not a recommendation.
EOD close · as of 2026-09-17
No material risks flagged.
Where each multiple sits in its own 14-yr range · 33th pct blended
Dot = today · shaded = middle 50% · line = median. Lower percentile = cheaper vs its own 14-yr history.
Is the profit real, and how strong is the balance sheet?
FY2025 · every deduction from revenue to net income
DuPont — the three levers
Watch the leverage lever — a chunk of ROE comes from the balance sheet.
What the company owes vs. what it holds
Year-by-year maturities aren't in SEC companyfacts (footnote-only), so this shows the debt/cash structure and net leverage instead.
Latest year: profit growth vs revenue growth
Profit and sales moved in opposite directions this year.
Each line as % of revenue — the trend in color
| % of revenue | FY2018 | FY2019 | FY2020 | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cost of Revenue | 9.8 | 25.2 | 21.1 | 34.4 | 16.6 | 16.0 | 19.3 | 19.1 |
| SG&A | 2.1 | 5.0 | 3.4 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.5 |
| Operating Income | 63.7 | 11.8 | -152.3 | 15.7 | 54.3 | 51.8 | 37.6 | 9.9 |
| Income Tax | -0.0 | 0.0 | -0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 3.6 | 7.2 | 1.0 |
| Net Income | 21.2 | -16.2 | -164.1 | 1.3 | 49.2 | 42.6 | 23.4 | 1.6 |
Green = margin-favorable vs the row's own range · red = unfavorable.
The metrics that matter, over time
A 30-second read on NOG: price, valuation, headline fundamentals, and an auto-generated scorecard from SEC filings. Flags are rule-based signals, not recommendations.
EOD close · as of 2026-09-17
How a revenue dollar becomes profit — FY2025
Each value shows its share of revenue below it (common-size).
| Line Item | FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2023 | FY2022 | FY2021 | FY2020 | FY2019 | FY2018 | FY2017 | FY2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2.48B 100.0% | $2.23B 100.0% | $2.17B 100.0% | $1.57B 100.0% | $496.9M 100.0% | $552.2M 100.0% | $472.4M 100.0% | $678.9M 100.0% | $209.3M 100.0% | $144.9M 100.0% |
| Cost of Revenue | $473.7M 19.1% | $429.8M 19.3% | $347.0M 16.0% | $260.7M 16.6% | $170.8M 34.4% | $116.3M 21.1% | $118.9M 25.2% | $66.6M 9.8% | $49.7M 23.8% | $45.7M 31.5% |
| Selling, General & Admin | $61.3M 2.5% | $50.5M 2.3% | $46.8M 2.2% | $47.2M 3.0% | $30.3M 6.1% | $18.5M 3.4% | $23.6M 5.0% | $14.6M 2.1% | $19.0M 9.1% | $14.8M 10.2% |
| Total Operating Expenses | $2.23B 90.1% | $1.39B 62.4% | $1.04B 48.2% | $717.3M 45.7% | $418.9M 84.3% | $1.39B 252.3% | $416.9M 88.2% | $246.3M 36.3% | $148.8M 71.1% | $374.2M 258.2% |
| Operating Income | $245.8M 9.9% | $837.8M 37.6% | $1.12B 51.8% | $853.2M 54.3% | $78.0M 15.7% | -$841.2M -152.3% | $55.5M 11.8% | $432.6M 63.7% | $60.5M 28.9% | -$229.3M -158.2% |
| Interest Expense | $172.4M 7.0% | $157.7M 7.1% | $135.7M 6.3% | $80.3M 5.1% | $59.0M 11.9% | $58.5M 10.6% | $79.2M 16.8% | $86.0M 12.7% | $70.3M 33.6% | $64.5M 44.5% |
| Other Income (Expense), net | -$183.1M -7.4% | -$157.0M -7.1% | -$121.1M -5.6% | -$76.9M -4.9% | -$71.4M -14.4% | -$65.0M -11.8% | -$131.8M -27.9% | -$289.0M -42.6% | -$71.3M -34.0% | -$65.6M -45.3% |
| Pretax Income | $62.7M 2.5% | $680.8M 30.6% | $1.00B 46.2% | $776.3M 49.4% | $6.6M 1.3% | -$906.2M -164.1% | -$76.3M -16.2% | $143.6M 21.2% | -$10.8M -5.1% | -$294.9M -203.5% |
| Income Tax Expense | $23.9M 1.0% | $160.5M 7.2% | $77.8M 3.6% | $3.1M 0.2% | $233K 0.0% | -$166K -0.0% | $0 0.0% | -$55K -0.0% | -$1.6M -0.8% | -$1.4M -1.0% |
| Net Income | $38.8M 1.6% | $520.3M 23.4% | $923.0M 42.6% | $773.2M 49.2% | $6.4M 1.3% | -$906.0M -164.1% | -$76.3M -16.2% | $143.7M 21.2% | -$9.2M -4.4% | -$293.5M -202.5% |
| Per Share | ||||||||||
| EPS (Basic) | $0.40 | $5.21 | $10.09 | $9.26 | $-0.13 | $-21.55 | $-2.00 | $6.08 | $-0.15 | $-4.80 |
| EPS (Diluted) | $0.39 | $5.14 | $10.03 | $8.92 | $-0.13 | $-21.55 | $-2.00 | $6.07 | $-0.15 | $-4.80 |
| Weighted Avg Shares (Basic) | 97.7M | 99.9M | 91.5M | 78.6M | 63.0M | 42.7M | 38.7M | 23.6M | 62.4M | 61.2M |
| Weighted Avg Shares (Diluted) | 99.3M | 101.3M | 92.1M | 86.7M | 63.0M | 42.7M | 38.7M | 23.7M | 62.4M | 61.2M |
Source: SEC EDGAR XBRL filings (annual, fiscal year). Quarterly flow items are derived from cumulative filings; balance-sheet figures are as-of each period end. Ratios and margins are computed, not reported.
Top 40 institutional holders — bubble size is position value, color is the move since last quarter. Hover any holder for detail.
Drag any bubble to rearrange · size = dollar value of the position